Provincial Outlook Economic Forecast: Ontario—Autumn 2018

The Conference Board of Canada, 63 pages, December 20, 2018
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This quarterly economic forecast for the province of Ontario examines the economic outlook for the province, including gross domestic product (GDP), output by industry and labour market conditions.

Document Highlights

  • The Ontario economy will expand in the 2.0 per cent range over the near term.
  • Weaker growth in household spending is a major factor behind the more subdued outlook.
  • Pending approval in the U.S. Congress, the CUSMA trade agreement should benefit Ontario’s auto sector.
  • Premier Ford’s promised tax cuts will make it difficult for the province to balance the books unless more spending cuts are implemented.
  • The elimination of the cap-and-trade program should lower gasoline and natural gas prices but will also reduce government revenue.

Table of Contents

RÉSUMÉ

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Ontario

  • Ontario’s Economy Still Showing Signs of Strength
  • Weaker but Still Solid Growth in Household Spending
  • Investment Spending a Plus for Growth
  • Toronto’s Housing Market Beginning to Stabilize
  • Cuts in Government Spending on the Way

Appendix A–Forecast Tables

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