Canadian Outlook Long-Term Economic Forecast: Mid-Year Update—2017

The Conference Board of Canada, 69 pages, June 28, 2017
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This report presents a mid-year update of our long-term national economic outlook.

Document Highlights

  • While GDP will grow by more than 2 per cent this year, the economy will return to its slow-growth trend next year.
  • Population aging is dampening our outlook for long-term economic growth, but the dismal performance over the next five years will be due mainly to chronically weak business investment taking a toll on economic prospects.
  • Strong immigration will help to offset the population impacts of the aging of the baby boomers. Still, the elderly will continue to account for a rising share of the population.
  • Business investment is expected to post robust long-term growth as firms substitute capital for increasingly scarce labour due to population aging.
  • The trade sector is expected to perform well over the long term, thanks to stable growth in the U.S. economy and a weak loonie.

Table of Contents

Slower Economic Growth in Store for the Next 20 Years

  • World Outlook
  • Demographic and Labour Market Developments
  • Potential Output
  • Monetary Policy
  • Fiscal Policy
  • Aggregate Demand
  • Industry Outlook

Appendix A—Forecast Tables

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