This annual economic forecast for the province of Quebec examines the economic outlook for the province, including gross domestic product (GDP), output by industry and labour market conditions.
Provincial Outlook Long-Term Economic Forecast: Quebec—2018
Provincial Outlook Long-Term Economic Forecast: Quebec—2018
Provincial Economic Analysis
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- Quebec’s GDP growth will average 1.5 per cent over the long term.
- The forecast for modest economic growth is being driven primarily by a deceleration in labour force growth and the aging of the population.
- In 2040, those aged 65 and over will account for a quarter of Quebec’s population, compared with 18.5 per cent in 2017.
- Housing starts will decline sharply over the long term, as an aging population will require the construction of fewer single-detached homes.
- While machinery and equipment investment has lagged in recent years, a decline in the working-age population over the next decade and the need to be more competitive will spur growth in investment in machinery and equipment.
- The export outlook for Quebec is uncertain due to the protectionist nature of the Trump administration. Over the long term, the continuation of large U.S. trade deficits will lead to ongoing trade disputes with the U.S. irrespective of which party is in power in Washington, with the potential to hurt Quebec’s export potential.
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