Growth, jobs, and inflation interrupted.
The U.S. economy will slowly recover from the devastating effects of COVID-19. By 2023, the gap between potential and actual growth should close. However, there will be lingering effects. While weaker economic growth over the long term partly explains the anticipated higher unemployment rate, the damage caused by the virus—especially in the service sector—implies that some jobs will never return.
Contents of the December 2020 edition:
- Low domestic demand will slow down GDP growth
- Inflation not expected to rise much above 2.0 per cent over the long term
- Fertility rate to stay below replacement rate through to 2040
- Immigration at a low ebb following Trump and COVID-19
- Participation in the workforce will peak in 2022
- COVID-19 not the sole factor affecting productivity
- The link between education and productivity is weakening
- How Americans will spend
- International trade takes a hit from demographics and deglobalization movements
- U.S. economy could operate with little long-term inflation