U.S. Outlook
20-Year Outlook By CBoC Economics Team • Updated November 3, 2025
The Slowdown Takes Hold
The U.S. economy whipsawed in the first half of 2025 as on-again off-again tariffs sowed chaos and uncertainty. After a mild contraction in the first quarter of the year, growth rebounded strongly in the second quarter. This whiplash was largely a trade story driven by dramatic swings in imports in response to tariff announcements and implementation.
November 3, 2025 • 10-min read
Previous Release
From Boom to Bust?
August 14, 2025
The U.S. may no longer be a beacon of economic strength. The Trump administration’s unpredictable approach to trade policy has cast a dark cloud of uncertainty over the outlook, leading to a widespread state of caution. Growth is faltering, inflation is accelerating, and unemployment is on the rise. Consumer and business confidence are plummeting, translating into less spending and investment.
Online experience • 13-min read
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