The Slowdown Takes Hold
Given the level of uncertainty surrounding global trade policy, our forecast presents a scenario operating under the assumption of a 15.0 per cent effective tariff rate in the U.S. until the end of 2026. However, tariff developments can change quickly. At a minimum, this forecast represents a scenario of the currently projected trade battle the U.S. will face.
What will be the impact of the Trump administration’s trade policy on the labour market in the United States? Which imported goods will be especially hit hard by tariffs and impact consumer spending? Is the United States facing a possible recession?
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