Recent employment, income, and business investment data indicate that economic growth is poised to dip below 2 percent in the current quarter, but trends in the leading economic indicators suggest that growth will accelerate modestly in the second half.
Document Highlights
Growth dips in Q2, but it is poised to rise in the second half of the year
- Although recent job, income, and business investment data signal a dip in Q2 growth, trends in the leading economic indicators keep pointing to a modest acceleration in the second half of 2012
- Downside risks include slower growth in emerging markets and the European debt crisis
- Productivity growth continues to weaken, as employment growth outpaces GDP
- A loose labor market and slowing profits are keeping a lid on wage growth
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