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Higher Education Trend Report: Enrolment Outlook

Education & Skills

By: Ibrahim Abuallail

    

Key insights 

Shifting enrolment trends signal a new era for Canadian post-secondary education

  • Total enrolment across Canadian post-secondary institutions is expected to decline to 2.01 million by 2030, from a total of 2.21 million in 2023, due to federal policy changes.
  • College enrolments are predicted to decrease by 20.6 per cent over the next five years, compared to a 2.2 per cent decline for universities.

STEM disciplines on the rise

  • Enrolments in STEM disciplines grew by 9.3 per cent over the past decade, reflecting alignment with technological advancements such as AI and cloud computing.
  • This shift indicates a growing demand for skills relevant to an evolving job market, influencing program offerings across institutions.

International students remain crucial but face uncertain future

  • International students made up 21.2 per cent of total enrolments in 2022–23, highlighting their importance to institutional revenues.
  • Policy changes affecting migration and international students would considerably impact international enrolments, posing risks for institutions reliant on this revenue stream.

Regional and demographic shifts paint a complex picture

  • Nearly 90 per cent of enrolments are concentrated in Ontario, Quebec, British Columbia, and Alberta, reflecting regional population patterns.
  • Although women continue to outnumber men in higher education, their representation is declining slightly across all levels.

Looking ahead: navigating the enrolment landscape

As enrolment patterns evolve, institutions will need to adapt their strategies to demographic shifts, policy changes, and emerging educational needs to sustain growth and competitiveness.

Explore the full report to uncover deeper insights and the trends shaping the future of Canadian post-secondary education.

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