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Metro Resale Snapshot: January 2016

Market Disparities Persisted in December

The overall sales trend in December was biased to the downside, with 14 of the 28 markets covered here registering a monthly decrease. Most of the dips were small; only 5 markets suffered a drop of at least 5 per cent. Data for Kitchener remains unavailable.

Still, listings increased in 17 markets between November and December, even with uneven sales. Calgary, St. Catharines, and Trois-Rivières saw particularly large listings hikes.

The fall in sales trimmed the sales-to-listings ratio between November and December in 17 areas. Balanced conditions prevailed in 16 markets. Vancouver, the Fraser Valley, London, and Windsor experienced sellers’ conditions last month.

Price advances remain red hot in Toronto and Southern B.C., but prices in other areas—notably Alberta, the Prairies, Northern Ontario,and Atlantic Canada—are weaker.



Short-Term Year-Over-Year MLS Price Change Expectations

+7% Victoria, Vancouver, Fraser Valley, Toronto, Oshawa, Hamilton
5–6.9% St. Catharines, Windsor
3–4.9% London, Kingston, Sherbrooke
0–2.9% Edmonton, Saskatoon, Winnipeg, Thunder Bay, Sudbury, Kitchener, Ottawa, Gatineau, Montréal, Québec, Trois-Rivières, Saguenay, Saint John, Halifax
Falling Calgary, Regina, Newfoundland

Resale Indicators for December 2015

Sales-to-New-Listings Ratio
Market1 Market
Classification
Sales (#)2 Listings (#) Level Balanced Market
Range3
Price ($)
Victoria
m/m %
y/y %
Balanced 8,364
0.6
27.9
12,072
–2.3
11.4
0.701 0.469–0.747 558,844
9.4
12.7
Vancouver


Sellers 48,624
–0.3
34.3
61,380
–0.5
5.7
0.805 0.436–0.718 999,455
3.7
19.2
Fraser Valley4


Sellers 24,528
0.4
50.8
31,752
8.2
12.4
0.782 0.437–0.701 636,328
3.1
20.3
Calgary


Buyers 22,524
–3.6
–20.4
54,216
11.6
4.7
0.445 0.473–0.747 456,941
1.9
–0.5
Edmonton


Buyers 17,508
–6.2
–3.3
42,348
8.4
35.2
0.414 0.464–0.752 368,143
–0.7
1.0
Regina


Buyers 3,060
–11.1
–11.8
7,584
–8.3
–26.3
0.415 0.520–0.772 286,702
–9.1
–7.5
Saskatoon


Buyers 5,208
–4.6
–4.0
15,192
7.2
20.9
0.356 0.463–0.719 351,727
3.7
2.6
Winnipeg


Balanced 12,096
–3.6
5.3
21,660
1.7
–0.7
0.567 0.443–0.808 260,720
–8.2
–5.2
Thunder Bay


Balanced 2,100
–5.9
–16.3
3,348
–4.8
–10.9
0.583 0.488–0.721 200,325
0.8
–5.9
Sudbury


Balanced 2,268
–4.5
–8.3
4,836
–1.0
–2.2
0.462 0.331–0.615 231,574
–8.9
–7.6
Toronto


Balanced 104,040
–2.1
11.3
167,892
2.1
7.4
0.628 0.467–0.687 637,797
0.4
9.5
Oshawa


Balanced 11,844
4.1
16.1
16,032
4.0
14.0
0.741 0.482–0.742 459,769
1.8
15.5
Hamilton


Balanced 15,156
–6.9
3.2
19,524
–5.0
–0.6
0.775 0.415–0.786 452,596
2.2
9.2
St. Catharines


Balanced 3,156
1.5
5.2
4,752
13.5
11.9
0.651 0.378–0.660 295,594
0.4
6.3
Kitchener


Buyers 0
0.0
0.0
0
0.0
0.0
0.000 0.467–0.713 0
0.0
0.0
London


Sellers 10,344
6.9
13.3
16,800
3.9
0.9
0.615 0.400–0.609 271,027
1.4
3.9
Windsor


Sellers 6,432
–1.5
33.7
8,568
–8.5
–8.2
0.739 0.447–0.622 201,043
0.1
7.4
Kingston


Balanced 3,180
6.4
11.3
9,108
–6.8
22.2
0.352 0.294–0.588 308,287
12.4
13.4
Ottawa


Balanced 15,336
–0.1
10.2
33,180
3.2
2.8
0.461 0.398–0.674 372,900
1.9
2.8
Gatineau


Buyers 3,876
11.8
19.2
9,072
2.6
16.8
0.415 0.451–0.704 256,068
5.4
7.4
Montréal


Balanced 39,744
2.7
10.6
80,148
5.6
2.6
0.500 0.436–0.839 350,112
0.8
4.1
Québec City


Buyers 6,936
4.7
3.6
14,988
1.1
1.1
0.463 0.527–0.763 288,430
9.3
9.1
Sherbrooke


Balanced 2,088
19.2
20.8
3,996
–0.9
6.1
0.518 0.459–0.701 222,231
–33.2
9.7
Trois-Rivières


Balanced 1,056
–1.1
2.3
2,112
10.0
20.5
0.487 0.483–0.747 164,750
–4.2
1.2
Saguenay


Balanced 1,176
5.4
14.0
2,388
–1.0
4.7
0.475 0.473–0.722 167,439
–6.5
14.4
Saint John


Balanced 1,752
0.7
–8.8
4,536
4.4
3.6
0.374 0.365–0.586 152,762
–13.1
–13.1
Halifax


Buyers 4,104
–17.0
–14.3
10,656
6.2
5.5
0.389 0.455–0.685 287,918
–5.1
6.6
Newfoundland
(province)

Balanced 4,284
1.1
1.4
10,392
1.3
4.6
0.404 0.353–0.570 265,483
–3.3
–2.1

1 For real estate board area (except Newfoundland, which is province-wide).
2 Italics indicate per cent change. The second row shows the percentage change from the previous month; the third row from the year earlier.
3 Within one standard deviation of long-term average sales-to-new-listings ratio.
4 Includes Abbotsford.
Notes: All data are seasonally adjusted.
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Canadian Real Estate Association; Quebec Federation of Real Estate Boards.


About the Metro Resale Snapshot

The monthly Metro Resale Snapshot provides an overview of the existing home market for 28 areas and expectations for existing home price growth over the short term.



Disclaimer: Forecasts and research often involve numerous assumptions and data sources and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. 

The spread of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has created uncertainty in all global markets. We’re doing our best to provide timely updates, but information can fall out of date quickly. Visit conferenceboard.ca for our latest insights. The Conference Board of Canada reserves the right to adjust content as necessary.

Robin Wiebe Robin Wiebe
Senior Economist

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