World Outlook: Global Economic Trends and Prospects: Autumn 2002

International issues that have an impact on Canadian organizations are highlighted in this quarterly publication.

Document Highlights

In the first half of this year the world economy managed to shake off the economic downturn of 2001. However, the recovery has been very weak, and some regions of the world appear to be slipping back into recession.

Highlights of this issue include:

• The three most powerful economies in the world, those of the United States, Japan and Germany, are in varying degrees of trouble. As a result, growth of world real GDP is expected to be only 1.6 per cent this year, not much more than the 1 per cent recorded in 2001.
• In 2003, a rebound in world economic activity is anticipated with a recovery in the U.S. economy.
• The U.S. recovery in 2003 will be led by an increase in investment spending, a result of a rebound in corporate profitability.
• Uncertainty about Brazil’s economic prospects and the ongoing financial crisis in Argentina are likely to lead to weak growth over the short to medium term in South America.
• Structural problems in labour markets will keep unemployment high across most of Europe.