Wild Rose Country Buckling Up for Another Strong Year: Alberta’s Two-Year Outlook—June 2022

Document Highlights

• After expanding by 5.1 per cent in 2021, we forecast Alberta’s economy will grow by 6.6 per cent in 2022 and 4.7 per cent in 2023.
• Employment has been continuously increasing since surpassing pre-pandemic levels last year. We foresee employment will continue to grow by 5.1 per cent in 2022. We expect growth will moderate to 2.1 per cent in 2023.
• Oil prices have surged following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and we expect the conflict will drag into next year. The province will continue to benefit from elevated oil prices until 2023.
• The labour shortage in the oil and gas sector is a major downside risk going forward. A failure to attract new workers will significantly limit output growth in the future.
• Alberta lifted the provincial gasoline tax to support consumers’ wallets. While this relief measure is already having positive effects, inflation remains an important risk factor going forward.