Following a rocky winter, the US economic recovery is picking up speed.
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The Conference Board forecasts that US real GDP growth will rise to 5.0 percent (annualized rate) in Q1 21 and 6.0 percent (year-over-year) in 2021. Following a lull in the economic recovery in November and December, growth improved in January before stalling in February due to adverse weather conditions. In March, however, the economic recovery continued to strengthen. We expect real GDP growth to accelerate further over the coming quarters as new COVID-19 infection rates decline further, the vaccination program continues to expand, and a large fiscal support program is fully deployed. Following a robust recovery in 2021, we forecast economic growth of 3.5 percent (year-over-year) in 2022.
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