COVID-19 hit the Canadian tourism sector harder than any other. Its contraction in the second quarter of 2020 was six times larger than the economy’s as a whole.
Tourism’s recovery depends on a widely distributed vaccine, the lifting of public health measures, and a broader economic rebound.
We expect the global pandemic experience to reshape travel patterns and preferences in the medium term. Traveller confidence will remain subdued for at least the next two years.
Many small and medium-sized businesses in the tourism industry face the threat of insolvency. This may lead to consolidation in the sector and will entail some degree of permanent capacity loss.
Tourism’s recovery at the provincial level will depend on how well COVID-19 is contained locally and how reliant each province is on international visitors.
