This quarterly report focuses on the latest economic developments in the U.S. economy, tracking trends in labour, consumer, energy and housing markets, and examining industries and regions. Monetary and fiscal policy assumptions are also included.
U.S. Outlook Winter 2010
U.S. Outlook Winter 2010
Global Economic Analysis
$995.00
- Real GDP growth of 2.2 per cent in the third quarter of 2009 indicated that the recession likely ended last summer.
- For the recovery to be sustainable once the effect of stimulus begins to wane, firms must respond to rising profitability by increasing hiring. Without a pickup in hiring over the next few months, households will not experience the increase in incomes required to support gains in consumer spending—and the recovery will stall sometime in 2010.
- A $2.7-trillion increase in household wealth in the third quarter of 2009 was linked to surging equity markets and could have a positive impact on spending over the near term.
- Business investment spending will rebound in 2010, as the conditions that led to the plunge in spending are gradually starting to improve.
- We expect housing starts to grow by 23 per cent in 2010 following a drop of close to 38 per cent in 2009.
- The trend for the U.S. dollar will continue to be in a downward direction due to stimulative monetary policy, worries over the huge U.S. budget deficits, and lower risk aversion.
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