Turbulence Ahead: Provincial Three-Year Outlook

Turbulence Ahead: Provincial Three-Year Outlook

Pages:19 pages20 min read

Author: The Conference Board of Canada


This quarterly economic forecast presents the short-term outlook for Canada’s provinces.

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Interest rates are still on the rise, but the pace of change will moderate. Relief for borrowers will come later in 2023.

As a result of the war in Ukraine, strength in the resources sector, which propelled the Alberta and Saskatchewan economies in 2022, will carry over into 2023. Manitoba will also fare above the national average.

With an increase in offshore oil production following maintenance shutdowns, Newfoundland and Labrador will post real GDP growth of above 3 per cent next year.

The Ontario and B.C. economies will be constrained by rising interest rates well into 2023 but are poised to recover well in 2024.

Economic growth will also ease in Quebec next year; demographic constraints will further weigh on the economy in later years.

The Maritimes will be hampered by the consumer sides of their economies and demographic challenges, although robust population growth is providing some extra support to P.E.I.’s economy.

Key Findings
Newfoundland and Labrador
Prince Edward Island
Nova Scotia
New Brunswick
British Columbia

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