This quarterly economic forecast provides highlights of the Provincial Outlook report, which presents the short-term outlook for Canada’s provinces.
Tough Times Ahead: Provincial Outlook—November 2020
Tough Times Ahead: Provincial Outlook—November 2020
Provincial Economic Analysis
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- Canada’s economy is on the mend, but the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic are far from over. We expect localized closures and retrenchments in some segments of household spending and business activity to hold back the pace of recovery into mid-2021.
- The economic outlook varies for Canada’s provinces because of the different effects of the pandemic on the country’s industries.
- A resurgence in COVID-19 cases globally will hold back demand for energy and keep the recovery in tourism on hold.
- Massive government support has lifted aggregate household incomes well above their 2019 levels, supporting a surge in retail spending over the summer months.
- The income support, coupled with rock-bottom interest rates, has fired up housing markets across the country. The finance, insurance, and real estate sector will do well this year despite the pandemic.
- For most provinces, economic activity will not return to pre-COVID-19 levels until the second half of 2021.
- The federal and provincial governments are running up massive deficits this year. We expect growth in government spending to slow sharply once the crisis is past.
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