The Conference Board Economy Watch: United States View—January 2020

The Conference Board forecasts US real GDP growth to come in at 2.2 percent for Q4 2019 and annual growth to end up at 2.3 percent for 2019. We believe the worst of the slowdown is behind us and that quarterly growth will settle around or slightly above its long-term potential growth rate of 2 percent in 2020. Indeed, The Conference Board Leading Economic Index®(LEI) for the US paused in November following three consecutive months of decline. This slight improvement is encouraging. Consumer spending ticked up in November, but it will likely moderate over the coming quarters as income growth cools somewhat. Improvements in residential and nonresidential investment should offset any slowdown in consumption. Residential starts and permits data are already trending higher, and we expect business confidence to improve.