Fading domestic headwinds will keep growth above trend.
Document Highlights
While the US economy is clearly growing more slowly than during the middle of 2018, improved consumer and service sector confidence, along with stock market gains, suggest that growth can stay above its 2 percent trend through the end of 2019. Fears of higher interest rates faded after the Federal Reserve loosened monetary policy guidance. Still, weaker global growth and the waning influence of fiscal stimulus measures will weigh on economic performance this year. If inflation begins to pick up, the Fed may also have to tighten monetary policy, which could sap both confidence and growth momentum.
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