The Conference Board Economics Watch® United States View (March 2014)

We view the current slowdown in economic activity as a temporary pause. The inclement winter weather is depressing economic activity, thus we expect a rebound when warmer temperatures arrive in the spring. Further, the slowing in inventory accumulation, following the strong surge in the second half of 2013, is also retraining headline GDP growth. Underlying economic fundamentals still remain healthy and point to stronger growth in the second half of the year. The largest downside risk is that the buildup in inventories will not be matched by a rise in aggregate demand.