The Conference Board Economics Watch® United States View—June 2016

Consumer spending has held up in the 2.6 to 3.0 percent range on a year-over-year growth basis, but business investment remains unusually weak with more uncertainties ahead around Brexit and global economic growth. In the near term, forward-looking indicators are not pointing to any rise in momentum. Indeed, The Conference Board GDP projections for the second half of 2016 were revised down from about 2.2 percent to 1.9 percent annualized growth. One big story for the second half of the year is subdued business confidence and a tighter squeeze on profitability, which could keep investment in capital equipment low and limit investment in human capital.