This month, we try to read the earliest data on confidence and industrial production to understand what impact Brexit will have on the real economy. Surveys show so far a modest negative impact in 2016 in the Euro Area but a much larger slump in the UK.
The Conference Board Economics Watch® European View: August 2016
The Conference Board Economics Watch® European View: August 2016
Global Economic Analysis
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Will the Euro Area economy fall into a recession? Early signs point to a better-than-expected reaction to Brexit so far. Economic sentiment remains stable in the Euro Area, while a severe drop is observed in the UK. The data on industrial production show increases in Germany and Spain. A decline is registered in Italy and France, although it might not necessarily be due to the EU referendum.
Unpacking the latest data on confidence suggests that so far Brexit has had a limited economic impact outside the UK itself. The impact of the climate of uncertainty will likely be stronger in 2017 than it is now.
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