This annual economic forecast for the province of Quebec examines the economic outlook for the province, including gross domestic product (GDP), output by industry and labour market conditions.
Document Highlights
Quebec’s GDP will grow at an average annual rate 1.5 per cent over the long term.
The forecast for modest economic growth is being driven primarily by a deceleration in labour force growth and the aging of the population.
In 2040, those aged 65 and over will account for a quarter of Quebec’s population, compared with 18.9 per cent in 2018.
Housing starts will decline sharply over the long term, as an aging population will require fewer single detached homes.
There is downside risk to the number of immigrants entering Quebec over the medium and long terms, given the provincial government’s statement that it wants to reduce immigration levels.
The export outlook for Quebec has improved somewhat, thanks to the recent signing of the Canada–United States–Mexico Agreement, which replaced NAFTA. However, over the long term, trade disputes and their disruptive impact on global chains pose downside risks to Quebec’s export prospects.
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