This annual economic forecast provides highlights of the Provincial Outlook Long-Term report which presents the long-term provincial outlook.
Provincial Outlook Long-Term Economic Forecast: 2009
Provincial Outlook Long-Term Economic Forecast: 2009
Provincial Economic Analysis
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- A consistent slowing in labour force growth means economic growth in Canada will ease steadily over the forecast period, slowing to an annual pace of less than 2 per cent in the final years.
- Ontario and Alberta will occupy the two top spots over the long term. While Ontario and Alberta will suffer greatly from the current global downturn, the long-term prospects for these provinces are robust.
- Real GDP growth will average 1.9 per cent in British Columbia and 1.4 per cent in Prince Edward Island, as the two provinces become preferred retirement havens for baby boomers.
- A declining population and the depletion of oil reserves will weigh heavily on Newfoundland and Labrador over the next two decades.
- Mega construction projects will delay the population decline in New Brunswick until after 2020. Nova Scotia will see its population shrink starting in 2025.
- Quebec will face a recession in 2009. In the long term, the province should see average annual growth of 1.7 per cent.
- More favourable immigration will help population growth hold steady in Manitoba over the forecast period. Saskatchewan will also benefit from immigration.
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