This annual economic forecast presents the long-term provincial outlook. At the end of the report, there is a forecast for Canadian economic indicators and a comparison of GDP by province and industry.
Provincial Outlook Long-Term Economic Forecast: 2007
Provincial Outlook Long-Term Economic Forecast: 2007
Provincial Economic Analysis
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- Demographic factors suggest that Canada’s economy will advance more and more slowly over the long term, with growth averaging 2.2 per cent over the last 15 years of the forecast.
- Ontario and Alberta will occupy the two top spots over the long term. Ontario will recover from the external-trade-driven downturn in the near term. Alberta’s economic prospects will continue to shine from the development of the oil sands.
- Over the long term, real GDP growth will average 2.2 per cent in British Columbia and 1.6 per cent in Prince Edward Island, as the provinces become retirement havens for baby boomers.
- Declining population and the depletion of oil reserves will weigh heavily on Newfoundland and Labrador over 2006–30.
- Population will shrink in every year of the forecast in New Brunswick and will edge down in Nova Scotia starting in 2022.
- Quebec will overcome near-term difficulties in the external trade sector and should be able to advance by an average annual growth of 1.8 per cent over the long term.
- More favourable immigration will help population growth hold steady in Manitoba over the forecast period. Saskatchewan will also benefit from immigration.
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