Provincial Outlook Long-Term Economic Forecast: 2004

This annual executive summary provides highlights of the Provincial Outlook report which presents the long-term outlook for Canada’s provinces.

Document Highlight

• Canada’s economy is expected to see compounded annual growth of 2.6 per cent between 2004 and 2025, slightly above potential output growth.
• Ontario and Alberta will occupy the two top spots over the long term. Alberta will benefit from the active development of the oilsands, where over $37 billion in investment has been proposed by several major players between 2001 and 2015. Ontario will benefit from a favourable demographic outlook over the next 20 years.
• Over the long term, real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in British Columbia and Prince Edward Island will average 2.3 per cent, as the provinces become retirement havens for baby boomers.
• Declining population and depletion of oil reserves will weigh heavily on Newfoundland and Labrador over 2003-2025.
• Quebec is expected to average annual growth of 2.3 per cent over the forecast, as major capital outlays in electricity-generating capacity and sound export activity compensate for its tepid population growth.
• Population decline in New Brunswick, Nova Scotia and Saskatchewan and slow growth in Manitoba will limit consumption expenditures over the long term.