This quarterly economic forecast provides highlights of the Provincial Outlook report, which presents the short-term outlook for Canada’s provinces.
Provincial Outlook Economic Forecast: Summer 2008
Provincial Outlook Economic Forecast: Summer 2008
Provincial Economic Analysis
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- A decline in exports, especially in the auto sector, will result in real GDP growth for Canada of only 1.7 per cent this year. Economic growth is expected to accelerate to 2.7 per cent in 2009, helped by a better trade performance and still strong domestic demand.
- The Prairie provinces will steal the spotlight this year. Saskatchewan is booming while Manitoba’s economy is projected to grow steadily over the forecast period.
- Alberta and British Columbia are losing speed. Labour supply constraints and poor drilling performance will dampen economic growth this year in Alberta. British Columbia is feeling the effects of the downturn in the United States. Both the forestry and manufacturing sectors will contract considerably for one more year.
- Development of the Deep Panuke natural gas field will stimulate Nova Scotia, while a new PotashCorp mine and processing plant will fuel the construction industry in New Brunswick. Prince Edward Island will experience stable GDP growth in 2008-09.
- Despite sky-high crude oil prices, oil production will not provide much stimulus to Newfoundland and Labrador’s economy this year. Ontario’s economy has deteriorated considerably since the end of 2007. The auto sector is reeling. A new Toyota plant coming on stream should help Ontario rebound next year. Quebec’s economic outlook is not as precarious. Neither province is expected to slip into recession.
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