This quarterly economic forecast provides highlights of the Provincial Outlook report, which presents the short-term outlook for Canada’s provinces.
Provincial Outlook Economic Forecast: Summer 2007
Provincial Outlook Economic Forecast: Summer 2007
Provincial Economic Analysis
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- Newfoundland and Labrador will experience strong gains this year in mineral production and in the retail and manufacturing sectors. However, the robust 7.1 per cent real GDP gain in 2007 will melt away quickly next year as the oil industry matures, leading to economic growth of just 0.4 per cent.
- Both New Brunswick and Nova Scotia will suffer from production interruptions at manufacturing facilities. However, large capital developments in the energy sector will support the outlook in those provinces. Provincial tax cuts will stimulate consumer demand in Prince Edward Island and allow for stable overall GDP gains in 2007–08.
- Alberta will reap the benefits from the massive development of the oil sands; real GDP growth will accelerate next year.
- The outlook in British Columbia is tempered by the weakness in the forestry and manufacturing sectors.
- More favourable migration is boosting the Saskatchewan economy in the near term, especially the new and existing residential market. In Manitoba, large multi-year capital projects, a favourable manufacturing outlook, and a vibrant domestic economy will drive strong GDP growth in 2007 and 2008.
- The rapid ascent of the Canadian dollar since May is hurting the trade sector in Central Canada. Ontario will, however, fare better than Quebec due to the resilience of vehicle sales south of the border earlier this year.
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