Provincial Outlook Economic Forecast: Summer 2004

This quarterly economic forecast presents the short-term outlook for Canada’s provinces.

Document Highlights

• Canadian real GDP will grow by 3 per cent in 2004 and 3.2 per cent in 2005.
• Ontario’s performance over the forecast period will be affected by the new health care levy and weak public spending, but the province will emerge as the economic growth leader in 2005 with firmer exports and solid job creation.
• Fiscal stimulus, recovering manufacturing activity and capital expenditure projects will ensure steady gains in Quebec of 3.2 per cent in 2004 and 2.9 per cent in 2005.
• A large decline in construction, dismal government spending and modest prospects for petroleum production will bring growth in Atlantic Canada down to 2 per cent over the near term.
• Booming economic activity south of the border and solid Asian demand will boost real GDP growth in British Columbia to 3 per cent in 2004 and 2.7 per cent in 2005.
• Alberta will be tops in the land in 2004 and will rank second in 2005, as it enjoys sky-high oil prices, healthy domestic demand and feverish development of the oilsands.
• Manitoba is projected to experience average growth of 3 per cent over the near term, while Saskatchewan faces a more moderate 2.5 per cent gain.