Provincial Outlook Economic Forecast: Spring 2018

This quarterly economic forecast provides highlights of the Provincial Outlook report, which presents the short-term outlook for Canada’s provinces.

Document Highlights

High debt levels, rising interest rates, and slower employment gains will weigh down economic growth in Canada.

Trade and investment both face uncertainty and will not contribute much to growth across the country.

Manitoba’s economic growth is forecast to cool over the near term as private investment peaks in 2018.

Quebec’s and Ontario’s economies, given easing domestic demand, will advance at a more moderate pace.

It is a difficult road for the energy sector as major companies are holding back on investment until there is more certainty about pipeline capacity; this is hurting Alberta’s outlook. But oil prices have been rising, presenting upside risks to the outlook.

The benefits of stronger international immigration helped the economies of New Brunswick and Nova Scotia in the last two years, but the aging of the population will keep growth modest going forward.

The only provinces that are expected to see a pickup in economic growth next year are Saskatchewan and Newfoundland and Labrador.