Provincial Outlook Economic Forecast: Autumn 2004

This quarterly executive summary provides highlights of the Provincial Outlook report which presents the short-term outlook for Canada’s provinces.

Document Highlights

• Canadian real GDP will grow by 3 per cent in 2004 and 3.2 per cent in 2005.
• Ontario will emerge as the economic growth leader in 2005, with firmer business investment and solid consumer expenditures.
• Fiscal stimulus will bolster retail spending in Quebec, but a large drop in housing starts will limit real GDP growth to 2.8 per cent in 2005.
• The economic outlook is brighter in Atlantic Canada with the recent approval of two energy projects, but weak petroleum production will limit growth to 2.3 per cent next year.
• With vigorous domestic demand and upbeat manufacturing activity, real GDP in British Columbia is forecast to rebound by 3.4 per cent in 2004 and to grow by a further 2.9 per cent in 2005.
• Alberta will be tops in the land in 2004 and will rank a close second in 2005, as it enjoys impressive development of the oilsands and strong prospects for the service sector.
• Manitoba and Saskatchewan are expected to experience average growth of 3 per cent next year.