Provincial Outlook Economic Forecast: Autumn 2004

This quarterly economic forecast presents the short-term outlook for Canada’s provinces.

Document Highlights

• Canadian real GDP will grow by 3 per cent in 2004 and 3.2 per cent in 2005.
• Ontario will experience robust economic growth in 2005, with firmer business investment and solid consumer expenditures.
• Fiscal stimulus will bolster retail spending in Quebec, but a large drop in housing starts will limit real GDP growth to 2.8 per cent in 2005.
• The economic outlook is brighter in Atlantic Canada with the recent approval of two energy projects, but weak petroleum production will limit growth to 2.3 per cent next year.
• With vigorous domestic demand and upbeat manufacturing activity, real GDP in British Columbia is forecast to rebound by 3.4 per cent in 2004 and to grow by a further 2.9 per cent in 2005.
• Alberta will be tops in the land in 2004 and will share first place with Ontario in 2005, as it enjoys impressive development of the oilsands and strong prospects for the service sector.
• Manitoba and Saskatchewan are expected to experience average growth of 3 per cent next year.