Provincial Outlook Economic Forecast: Autumn 2001

This quarterly executive summary provides highlights of the Provincial Outlook report which presents the short-term outlook for Canada’s provinces.

Document Highlights 

Real gross domestic product (GDP) growth will be weaker in all the provincial economies in 2001, with particularly pronounced deceleration in Ontario and Quebec. This is mainly because of the slowing U.S. economy, which is expected to slip into a recession in the second half of 2001.

This issue looks at how:

• Central Canada will post very modest growth for the next few quarters before rebounding strongly in the second half of 2002;
• New lumber tariffs will dampen growth in British Columbia’s forestry and manufacturing sector in both 2001 and 2002.
• Terra Nova will push Newfoundland to the top of the real GDP growth leader board in 2002; and
• Weaker energy prices will lead to weaker economic growth in Alberta in 2002.