This quarterly report focuses on the latest economic developments in the U.S. economy, tracking trends in labour, consumer, energy and housing markets, and examining industries and regions. Monetary and fiscal policy assumptions are also included.
Document Highlights
The U.S. economy is expected to expand by 2.4 per cent this year and 2.1 per cent next year, down sharply from our Spring outlook.
This downturn is primarily a result of much higher interest rates linked to the persistence of high inflation.
We expect inflation to moderate in the latter part of 2022, but the war in Ukraine adds significant uncertainty to the outlook.
Tight labour markets could both help and hurt policy-makers’ attempts to tighten monetary policy without driving the economy into recession.
The trade balance will continue to deteriorate as Americans purchase more imports, while export growth will be constrained by ongoing challenges in the world economy.
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