After a modest 2024, driven by weaker household consumer and business investment, we estimate Ontario’s annual real GDP rose by 1.4 per cent. In 2025 and 2026, lower inflation and further cuts to interest rates should gradually provide a foundation for stronger consumer and business confidence. However, new risks have emerged.
How does uncertainty around the proposed U.S. tariffs impact Ontario’s manufacturing base and cross-border supply chains? Will lower inflation be enough to boost consumer confidence? How will an aging population coupled with lower immigration levels weigh on Ontario’s labour market? What does residential and non-residential investment look like over the forecast period?
Read the issue briefing to get our full analysis.
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