This quarterly economic forecast presents the medium-term outlook for the Canadian economy. This release focuses on housing. For an overview of all major components of the economy, go to the Canadian Outlook main page.
Document Highlights
Canadian housing markets are throttling back following months of frenetic activity. Still, key underpinnings, such as mortgage interest rates, employment growth, and household formation, remain generally supportive.
The pandemic led to a massive increase in the number of people working from home and boosted demand for homes outside big cities. This could continue, further increasing residential demand in smaller centres.
Canada’s average resale price has peaked for now but will end 2021 up a record 24.2 per cent. We expect modest dips through 2023 and a peak-to-trough price drop of 10 per cent.
Canadian housing starts will hit a record-high 275,100 units in 2021, then ease to a still strong 236,500 units in 2022.
Residential investment has become a large component of GDP; its recent pullback and slow-growth prospects could be a significant economic drag.
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