Growth Expected, but for How Long? Canada’s Energy Outlook to 2040

This annual economic forecast presents Canada’s long-term energy outlook.

Documents Highlights

• The global shift toward cleaner sources of energy will have a profound impact on the long-term prospects of Canada’s energy sector.
• Strong oil and gas production in the United States should limit the rise in energy prices over the next decade. However, tighter regulations under new president Joe Biden could hurt the shale oil sector, which could lead to lower production and higher prices through the long term.
• The differential between U.S. and Canadian oil prices will be more favourable for Canadian producers over the next decade. But with no major Canadian pipelines scheduled to be built after 2023, the differential could widen gradually over the later years of our projection period.
• Most of the growth in Canada’s energy sector will come from Alberta’s oil sands, but limited investment means that output growth will be slower than in previous years.
• LNG Canada’s project is moving ahead and will boost exports of liquefied natural gas from the mid-2020s through 2040.