Fiscal Prospects for the Federal and Provincial/Territorial Governments

The purpose of this study is to project the federal Public Accounts and the aggregate provincial/territorial government Public Accounts over the long term, with a particular emphasis on determining the impact of demographic changes on the cost of public health care and education spending to 2019/20.

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In December 2003, the provinces and territories asked The Conference Board of Canada to update the July 2002 study, Fiscal Prospects for the Federal and Provincial/Territorial Governments. The purpose of this study is to project the federal Public Accounts and the aggregate provincial/territorial government Public Accounts over the long term, with a particular emphasis on determining the impact of demographic changes on the cost of public health care and education spending to 2019/20. The status quo assumption used in these long-term projections is aimed at evaluating the degree of fiscal latitude available to governments to implement new initiatives, or to assess the budgetary actions needed to balance the books. The Conference Board of Canada’s Canadian Outlook Long-Term Forecast 2004 serves as a backdrop for projecting the federal and total provincial/territorial governments’ Public Accounts.

Please note the numbers quoted in this report are not up-to-date and should not be cited as reflecting the current fiscal prospects for the federal and provincial/territorial governments. The fiscal relationship between the levels of government has changed since the publication of this report in 2004.