Canadian Outlook Executive Summary: Spring 2012

This quarterly economic forecast provides highlights of the Canadian Outlook report, which presents the short-term national outlook.

Document Highlights

• The Canadian economic recovery remains on track for steady but not strong growth. Real GDP is forecast to advance by 2.3 per cent in 2012 and 2.8 per cent next year, similar to what we projected in our winter 2012 Canadian Outlook.
• For the first time since 1997, government restraint will take a bite out of growth in 2012 as real public sector activity declines by 1.1 per cent.
• High food and gasoline prices pushed headline inflation to above 3 per cent recently, but the Bank of Canada is expected to hold off on rate hikes for another year.
• Resource exports and business investment provide the bright spots to the outlook.