Canadian Outlook Economic Forecast: Winter 2004

This quarterly executive summary provides highlights of the Canadian Outlook that presents the short-term national outlook.

Document Highlight

• The Canadian economy will expand by 3 per cent in 2004 and 3.6 per cent in 2005.
• Our dollar has peaked; it will lose value steadily against the U.S. dollar through the end of 2005.
• Interest rates will begin to rise at the end of 2004 as the output gap narrows.
• Housing markets will weaken as rising borrowing costs lower affordability.
• Fiscal policy will be a drag on overall growth in the near term.