This quarterly economic forecast presents the medium-term outlook for the Canadian economy. This release focuses on housing. For an overview of all major components of the economy, download the Canadian Outlook Summary.
Canadian Outlook Economic Forecast: Housing—July 2020
Canadian Outlook Economic Forecast: Housing—July 2020
Canadian Economic Analysis
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- The COVID-19 pandemic and the plunge in oil prices are threatening the solid economic underpinnings that had bolstered Canada’s residential markets. Future residential performance depends on the pandemic’s course and the effectiveness of the various support measures provided by public and private entities.
- We expect housing starts to fall 8.3 per cent to 191,400 units in 2020 but rebound to 209,000 in 2021. Our medium-term outlook is for starts to cool gradually in line with moderating household formation.
- Most resale markets are slowly recovering from April’s dramatic plunge in activity. Canada’s average resale price will fall 1.6 per cent this year and 2.1 per cent in 2021. We expect the average price to rise at an annual pace of roughly 5 per cent from 2022 to 2024.
- Pre-pandemic patterns of regional residential strength were well-established. Montréal and Toronto were hot, Vancouver was bouncing back, but Calgary continued to struggle. We expect these trends to resume.
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