Canadian Outlook Economic Forecast: Fall 2002

This quarterly executive summary provides highlights of the Canadian Outlook which presents the short-term national outlook.

Document Highlights

Defying the pervading sense of uncertainty and gloom with growth well ahead of initial expectations, the Canadian economy remains in overdrive. And while the economy is expected to step somewhat tentatively into 2003, the growth pause will be short-lived and hardly noticeable.

• The Canadian economy is forecast to expand by 3.5 per cent in 2002 and 3.4 per cent in 2003.
• The prospect of near-term inflationary pressures will lead the Bank of Canada to raise interest rates aggressively.
• Housing markets are expected to weaken in 2003.
• Capacity constraints will lead to higher growth in investment spending next year.