Canada’s Public Health Care System Through 2020: Challenging Provincial and Territorial Financial Capacity

A Conference Board study projects real provincial and territorial health expenditures through to 2020, showing how trends vary among seven components. The results call into question the financial sustainability of the Canadian health care system.

Document Highlights

• As a share of government revenues, overall provincial and territorial spending on health will increase from 32 per cent in 2001 to 44 per cent in 2020.
• An important factor driving increases in real health spending will be changes in the volume of services required due to demographic trends (e.g. growth and ageing of the population).
• The ageing of the Canadian population will be a particular concern for the health system when the bulk of the baby boomers reach age 65, starting in 2012.
• Provincial and territorial health spending as a share of GDP will increase from 6.3 per cent in 2001 to 7.4 per cent in 2020.
• As a share of total provincial and territorial health expenditures, spending on hospitals, other institutions, physicians, and other professionals will fall, while spending on home care, prescription drugs, and other items will rise.