Canada’s Five-Year Business Investment Outlook—August 2025

Canada’s Five-Year Business Investment Outlook—August 2025

Business and Household Indicators Canadian Economic Analysis
10 min read

Author: David Ristovski

$225.00

This quarterly economic forecast presents the medium-term outlook for the Canadian economy. This release focuses on business investment. For an overview of all major components of the economy, go to the Canadian Outlook main page.

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Investment Rebound on the Horizon Despite Turbulence

Due to market uncertainty brought on by U.S. tariffs, we predict that non-residential business investment will contract by 0.5 per cent, with the most significant impact occurring in the second quarter of 2025, in the manufacturing sector. Furthermore, uncertainty will persist heading into 2026, with the EV space presenting some downside risks.

Where do we expect a rebound in investment will occur, and when? What are the short-term risks to manufacturing, and what will be the impact on the sector in the medium term from anticipated EV-related investments, combined with improved domestic demand and the federal government’s plans to boost investment? What are the long-term prospects for the oil and gas sector?

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