Economic Impact of the Russian Invasion of Ukraine

Updated: September 21, 2022

The Latest Insights on an Evolving Issue

This page is your go-to resource for insights and analysis on the Russia invasion of Ukraine. Here we will bring you informed and concise content that gives a fact-based understanding of a complicated and rapidly changing situation.

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In the Media

High Gas Prices Could Easily Last a Year—and Go Even Higher, Experts Warn

With more major oil producers backing out of Russia, and a total ban on Russian oil exports being discussed by American, Canadian and EU diplomats, the price of crude oil could hit $150 (U.S.) per barrel.

Toronto Star  |  4-min read
March 8, 2022
Spokesperson—Pedro Antunes

Woman checking shopping receipt
As Gas Prices Soar in Wake of Ukraine War, Canadians Could See Cost of Goods Go Up

As Canadians feel the strain of record-breaking gas prices—which have no clear end in sight—experts warn the spike in fuel costs could be part of a larger inflationary trend that ripples through the rest of the economy. In recent weeks, energy prices have skyrocketed, driven in part by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, but compounded by legacies from the pandemic, including lower production capacities and increasing demand from consumers.

National Post  |  5-min read
March 8, 2022
Spokesperson—Pedro Antunes

Filling car's gas tank
Why the Gas Price Surge is an Economic Threat

Gas prices are galloping higher as the Russia–Ukraine war leads to a supply shock for crude oil. The increases are adding fuel to inflation, which is already at multidecade highs in advanced economies. The danger is that companies and consumers come to think steep inflation will drag on interminably, making it even tougher for central banks to control.

The Globe and Mail  |  2-min read
March 8, 2022
Spokesperson—Sohaib Shahid

Economist Pedro Antunes on Bank of Canada’s Key Interest Rate Hike

Pedro Antunes, chief economist at The Conference Board of Canada, weighs in on the Bank of Canada’s decision to raise its key interest rate from 0.25% to 0.5% and what that means for Canadians.

CPAC  |  7-min watch
March 2, 2022
Spokesperson—Pedro Antunes

Bank building facade
Ukraine War May Slow, But Won’t Stop, Bank of Canada Interest Rate Hikes: Experts

Though Russia’s invasion has already hit markets hard, sending prices soaring on commodities such as oil and wheat, Caranci said the long-term impact of the war isn’t yet known and won’t affect the Bank of Canada’s immediate decision making.

Global News  |  4-min read
March 1, 2022
Spokesperson—Pedro Antunes

Economic Quick Takes

Focus area—Canadian Economics

Russia has shaken the world order by choosing to go down a one-way path. The smooth function of societies and international market economies rely on trust—and by betraying that, Russia has likely done immeasurable damage to its own long-term interests.

Ted Mallett, Director, Economic Forecasting

Commentaries

Podcasts

Bright Future (Episode 29)

(36:50 min  |  May 10, 2022)

The war in Ukraine brought the country and its people to the forefront of international attention. Every day more and more people are seeking to help Ukrainians to end the war and to recover from the damage that is being inflicted.

Dr. Marnie Howlett has dedicated her life to understanding—and helping others understand—how Ukraine and its people view their country and their unique position as a borderland between Europe and Russia.

She joins us this episode to provide a deeper understanding of how Ukraine’s history, its complexities and its realities on the ground have helped to shape the war and are fueling the Ukrainian resistance.

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Marnie Howlett

Marnie Howlett

Departmental Lecturer in Politics, University of Oxford

Bright Future (Episode 28)

(41:58 min  |  April 13, 2022)

The ongoing war in Ukraine has shaken the foundation of international relations. In many ways this war feels like déjà vu—a land war in Europe, a larger power attempting to overtake another smaller country for its own gains. But in other ways this war is unprecedented. Professor Jane Boulden joins us this episode to help make sense of the impact of the war in Ukraine on the international order, on the United Nations, and on how this war has eroded the rules-based order that we thought governed international relations.

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Jane Boulden

Jane Boulden

Professor, Royal Military College of Canada; and Adjunct Professor, Queen’s University

Bright Future (Episode 27)

(35:57 min  |  March 30, 2022)

The Russian invasion of Ukraine sent shockwaves around the world and Canada is not immune. Join the Conference Board of Canada’s economic forecasting team as they discuss how this conflict will impact Canadian producers, government, and consumers. They will also discuss opportunities for Canada to build on its special relationship with the people of Ukraine to play a bigger role in post-war rebuilding.

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Pedro Antunes

Pedro Antunes

Chief Economist

Ted Mallett

Ted Mallett

Director, Economic Forecasting

Sohaib Shahid

Sohaib Shahid

Director, Economic Innovation

Available Research

Woman staring down and focusing at a laptop
Rising Rates Hit Home: Provincial Outlook

After an extended period in coasting mode, the Bank of Canada has put interest rates in gear and stomped on the accelerator. Along with the US Federal Reserve (the Fed), the Bank’s goal is to bring inflation to heel before it becomes more embedded in the psyche of businesses and consumers. With luck, the two financial institutions have gotten the timing right.

Online experience  |  8-min read
September 21, 2022
Focus Area—Canadian Economics

Man holding a bag of groceries in front of an escalator and looking at a receipt
Price Watch: U.S. Outlook

Is the U.S. economy about to slip into recession over the near term? The signs are certainly ominous, as stock markets have been trending downward and consumer confidence has slipped over the past few months. High inflation is closely linked to the pandemic, which disrupted global supply chains; the massive stimulus implemented by the federal government; and the war in Ukraine, which has led to surging prices for commodities like oil and wheat.

Online experience  |  8-min read
August 26, 2022
Focus Area—Canadian Economics

Man in the dark staring at a computer screen with hand against head
Pandemic, Inflation, and War: Assessing the Risk of Recession for Canada

Over the past 30 months, the global and Canadian economies have experienced more dramatic change and volatility, by most measures, than in the prior 30 years. Pandemic, inflation, and war have made prognostications about the future, or the path ahead for the economy, challenging at best. And even as we hope for pandemic waves to settle and the war to end, a return to “normal” may in fact look very different from the pre-pandemic past.

Issue briefing  |  12-min read
August 15, 2022
Focus Area—Canadian Economics

Man deep in thought with hand to face, sitting at a desk with a coffee and staring at a laptop
A Wing and a Prayer: World Outlook

Before the war in Ukraine began toward the end of February, we expected the global economy to expand this year. The war has added to the inflationary pressures in the world economy that were already in place. Energy and food prices have surged even higher while, at the same time, supply chain disruptions, while easing, remain challenging.

Online experience  |  8-min read
August 11, 2022
Focus Area—Canadian Economics

Renewed Interest: Canadian Outlook

The pileup of events around the war in Ukraine, continuing supply chain difficulties, and a seemingly never-ending line of Omicron subvariants has pushed prices worldwide beyond central banks’ tolerance levels. Canada is not as far up the inflation ladder as the United States. Canada’s economy suffered the COVID waves more deeply and did not recover as robustly through 2021.

Online experience  |  8-min read
August 9, 2022
Focus Area—Canadian Economics

Tall building in the night
The War in Ukraine Hurts an Already Struggling World Economy: World Outlook

From an economic perspective, the war has destroyed Ukraine’s economy and has severely damaged Russia’s as well. However, the war’s impact will not be confined to these countries. The conflict has added new risks to a world economy that was already struggling with rising inflation, bottlenecks in supply chains, and the lingering effects from the pandemic.

Online experience  |  8-min read
May 6, 2022
Focus Area—Canadian Economics

Two people staring at a paper
Could Inflation’s Surge Lead to Stagflation?

Inflation has surged in Canada after remaining largely dormant since the end of the 2008–09 global recession. In 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic struck, causing demand in the Canadian economy to collapse and holding the increase in consumer prices. However, a combination of factors, including the reopening of the economy, base effects, supply chain disruptions, soaring oil prices, and widespread shortages of semiconductors and other key products, has caused consumer prices to expand at a 4.0 to 5.0 per cent pace since the spring of 2021—well above the Bank of Canada’s upper target range.

Issue briefing  |  16-min read
March 25, 2022
Focus Area—Canadian Economics


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