Global Trade

Although merchandise exports increased in February, the outlook for Canada’s trade sector over the near term is far from positive. The combination of depressed global economic activity led by the U.S., and severe disruptions to global supply chains impacted by the intensification of the COVID-19 pandemic, leaves Canada in a very vulnerable position.

Quick Take- April 02, 2020

In the midst of a global collapse in demand for oil, Saudi Arabia, and Russia have embarked on a price war that has brought oil prices down to rock bottom levels—putting at risk many companies in Canada’s energy sector.

Blog- March 31, 2020

The spread of COVID-19 is a humanitarian emergency that is causing a change in global behaviour unlike anything that most of us have ever seen in our lifetime. Countries around the world are closing their borders and imposing quarantine measures on their citizens.

Website- March 23, 2020

Over the past few weeks, the number of COVID-19 cases in Canada has grown, following the exponential curve that is the typical pattern of this very contagious virus. So here as elsewhere, drastic measures, imposed and self-imposed, are being adopted by governments, business leaders and households to slow its spread.

March 19, 2020

Economic risks abound in January--While the Composite Leading Index rose in January, it’s hard to be optimistic about Canada’s near-term economic prospects. The global spread of coronavirus coupled with the rail blockades will hurt economic growth in both the first quarter and second quarter of 2020.

March 18, 2020

The Bank of Canada made a surprise double cut to its overnight rate this morning. In many ways this is a pre-emptive cut to draw a line under the economic fears we have seen over the past two weeks.

March 4, 2020

The outbreak of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) is an unfortunate global health emergency that is causing havoc for thousands of people in China and other affected countries. COVID-19 also adds much uncertainty to the global economy. China’s measures to contain the spread of the virus have been necessary, but they’ve also resulted in the halting of economic activity across a wide range of sectors and regions, especially in Hubei province, the epicentre of the outbreak.

February 28, 2020

Growth in the Canadian economy slowed to a muted in the fourth quarter. The sluggish performance was the result of a decline in business investment and exports, which were only partially offset by continued strength in consumer spending. Today’s release shows that economic growth has slowed to a crawl.

February 28, 2020

The headline story about the economy over the past few months has been the likelihood of a recession in the coming year. Global growth slowed as the trade war between China and the U.S. escalated, and this has driven fears that Canada—a country that is highly dependent on trade—could be on the brink of recession.

February 27, 2020

Canada’s global pulp market share is eroding—Global pulp markets are growing, fuelled by China’s economic growth. From 2008 to 2018, global pulp exports increased by nearly one-third. Even so, Canada has not taken full advantage of the growing opportunities and has lost market share to major competitors, such as Brazil, Finland, and Indonesia.

February 18, 2020 Klaus Edenhoffer

The global economy lost a lot of momentum in 2019. World GDP likely to increase this year in the wake of the increase in 2018. In 2020, we expect the global economy to expand, with much of this modest gain depending on the degree to which global trade tensions ease.

February 13, 2020 Kip Beckman

Strong growth in passenger traffic and commercial airline production in recent years led to a robust recovery for the aerospace industry. However, as the global economy slows and growth in passenger traffic continues to weaken, the industry may be reaching the end of the latest growth spurt.

February 6, 2020 Briefing by Elise Nelson

After a tough start to the year, the Canadian economy bounced back strongly in the second quarter. Although the headline growth number was impressive, the gain was driven entirely by the trade sector as final domestic demand was essentially zero— the fourth disappointing quarter over the past five quarters.

February 19, 2020

Index rise hides worrisome story -- The composite leading index uses monthly data that foreshadow future economic growth. While the index rose this month, it’s level is the second lowest in two years, which suggests slower economic growth going forward.

Cory Renner

Canada just entered a new decade in 2020, but there are several unsolved challenges that we’ll have to deal with over the coming years. The external landscape is also challenging, especially as the United States and China are, one day, working toward a trade deal, or the next day, ramping up the tariff war—with either outcome likely hurtful for Canada’s own trade prospects.

Quick-take

Over the last few decades, both Canada and Australia have aggressively pursued open international trade policies, but Australia has been much more effective. The legislation has proven successful in helping create a single market by aligning regulations and occupational qualifications (for registered occupations) and lowering the cost of doing business for companies operating in the Commonwealth.

Blog

The U.S. economy expanded in 2019, however weaker growth is anticipated in 2020. As investment spending and export growth continue to weigh on economic activity. The economy is growing at a pace close to its potential, while labour markets continue to add new jobs per month.

Report

The composite leading index of the Canadian economy sums up the performance that track the short-term course of the economy. Weakness in the U.S. leading index was a big reason for weakness in Canada’s leading index over the last two months.

Website

The headline story about the economy over the past few months has been the likelihood of a recession in the coming year. Global growth slowed as the trade war between China and the U.S. escalated, and this has driven fears that Canada—a country that is highly dependent on trade—could be on the brink of recession.

Website

Global trade tensions are negatively affecting world economic growth, which is impacting businesses’ investment decisions, both globally and domestically. When combined with the uncertainty surrounding margins.

Report

Canada’s accommodation industry has been a star performer since 2018. However, these top-line numbers conceal the forces at work that have started to disrupt the industry. In recent years, the competition from private short-term accommodations has significantly intensified and is now having substantial impacts on traditional hoteliers and the overall industry.

Report

Growth in labour productivity of Canadian businesses increased in the third quarter and is up compared to a year ago. But it’s less than half the pace of productivity growth seen in the U.S. over the past year.

Blog