Global Trade

COVID-19’s impact on immigration has been extraordinary. Immigrants who arrived or settled in Canada during the pandemic are distinct from previous groups of permanent residents. Understanding what makes this cohort unique is key to helping us identify their unique assets and tackle the integration challenges they may face. It also helps leaders across the immigration sector plan for the future and offset the negative impacts of the pandemic.

Online experience | 8-min read
May 20, 2021
Focus Area— Immigration

There are 11 Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs) with positive short- and long-term expectations this month, two more than last month. These are the CMAs in the up-up quadrant. Two CMAs remain in the down-down quadrant, with negative expectations for both the short and long terms.

Online experience  |  8-min read
May 13, 2021
Focus Area—Canadian Economics

The U.S. economy is set to expand this year on the heels of a 3.5 per cent decline in 2020. Next year, a solid gain is anticipated. One of the main factors driving the rebound is the massive $1.9-trillion stimulus package recently implemented by the Biden administration. The stimulus provides funds for individual families, state and local governments, health care, and the delivery of vaccinations, among other things.

Online experience  |  2-min read
April 19, 2021
Focus Area—Online experience

Real GDP posted a 2.3 per cent gain in the fourth quarter of last year, leaving overall economic activity down 5.4 per cent in 2020—by far Canada’s steepest recession in modern times. While the economy recovered over the second half of 2020, economic activity has again slowed in recent months.

Op-ed  |  4-min read
March 3, 2021
Focus Area—Canadian Economics

The news that safe and effective vaccines against COVID-19 have begun to be distributed has provided optimism that the pandemic could soon be beaten, lifting battered economies all around the world out of the deepest recession in modern times. This aligns with the assumption in our prior forecast, along with the expectation that still rising COVID-19 cases would lead to additional health-related restrictions and flatten the economic recovery over the first half of 2021.

Online experience  |  2-min read
March 1, 2021
Focus Area—Canadian Economics

Each province’s travel market is unique—as are their paths to recovery. Some regions will recover faster than others in the wake of COVID-19, depending on whether their tourism activities can easily be enjoyed while physically distancing. Employment in accommodation and food services is majorly impacted.

Online experience  |  8-min read
February 24, 2021
Focus Area—Canadian Economics

The agri-food sector is central to Manitoba’s economy and, by far, its largest export sector. It includes agriculture and food manufacturing. Manitoba’s agriculture goods, such as cereals and oil seeds, account for the largest share of the province’s overall agri-food exports. They are also its most globally competitive agri-food products.

Impact paper  |  45-min read
February 23, 2021
Focus Area—Canadian Economics

The COVID-19 pandemic has taken a massive toll on the global and Canadian economies. The government response has been unprecedented, with a quick rollout of fiscal and monetary policy measures that have bolstered household incomes, supported wages, and provided cheap credit to households and businesses.

Issue briefing  |  15-min read
February 18, 2021
Focus Area—Canadian Economics

January’s inflation inched up 1.0 per cent on a year-over-year basis, thanks to rising gasoline prices and surging housing prices. We expect that as restrictions ease and economic activity rebounds, inflation will gradually recover over the coming quarters.

Quick take  |  15-min read
February 17, 2021
Focus Area—Canadian Economics

The shape of Canada’s recovery Canada’s economy bounced back in recent months following the deep economic repercussions of the COVID-related shutdown. As health restrictions were lifted in May, the rebound took off. Statistics Canada estimates that by October, 2.4 million jobs had been recovered. The quick rebound is good news, but Canada’s economy still has a way to go before it can be deemed to have returned to normal.

Online experience  |  3-min read
February 16, 2021
Focus Area—Canadian Economics

Encouraging news about vaccines suggests that the pandemic should start to fade by the autumn of 2021. However, given that it will take a while before a majority of Americans can be vaccinated, the U.S. economy is in for a tough few months, as surging COVID-19 cases have forced many states to further tighten restrictions while they fight to control the spread of the virus.

Online experience  |  2-min read
January 20, 2021
Focus Area—Canadian Economics

Canada needs to diversify its trading partners. The unpredictable trade policies of our southern neighbour over the past few years and the challenges caused by COVID-19 have made this clear. Over 70 per cent of Canadian goods and services exports are destined for the United States. And while this reliance will not wane any time soon, Canada should continue to gradually broaden its reach and diversify into other markets. Japan offers many opportunities.

Impact paper  |  45-min read
December 7, 2020
Focus Area—Canadian Economics

The U.S. economy is starting to emerge from the devastation created by the COVID-19 pandemic. While real GDP dropped in the second quarter of 2020, we expect a sharp rebound in growth in the second half of this year and into 2021. However, our outlook depends crucially on a successful containment of the virus, something that has turned out to be challenging especially in Southern states like Florida.

Webinar  |  59-min listen
November 10, 2020
Focus Area—Canadian Economics

The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted product shipments and forced many Canadian businesses to adjust their supply chains. For some, this has involved sourcing more inputs from local suppliers. The current economic hardship has also caused a surge of solidarity from Canadians who are supporting businesses by buying locally. But a strategy focused on buying local is not the solution Canada’s economy needs.

Op-ed  |  3-min read
November 4, 2020
Focus Area—Canadian Economics

Forecasters surveyed by The Conference Board of Canada in the autumn have a slightly more optimistic view of the economy’s short-term prospects than they did in summer. Still, the situation remains bleak. Based on responses to the survey, the COVID-19 pandemic and the resulting shutdown of the economy in March and April will result in a decline in real GDP this year.

Online experience  |  2-min read
October 26, 2020
Focus Area—Canadian Economics

As COVID-19 containment measures began to ease after the first wave, business leaders and policy-makers here in Canada and around the world started to think about how to deal with the aftermath of the pandemic. This means finding the right strategies to rebuild their economies and improve supply chain resiliency to future shocks.

Issue briefing  |  11-min read
October 20, 2020
Focus Area—Canadian Economics

The global economy lost a lot of momentum in 2019. World GDP likely to increase this year in the wake of the increase in 2018. In 2020, we expect the global economy to expand, with much of this modest gain depending on the degree to which global trade tensions ease.

Impact paper  |  15-min read
August 18, 2020
Focus Area—Canadian Economics

Canada’s continued prosperity in a globalized, knowledge-based economy will be driven, in part, by our transition to a set of next-generation technologies, popularly known as “industry 4.0” technologies.

Commentary  |  4-min read
June 11, 2020
Focus Area—Innovation & Technology

Canada’s acceptance of immigrants demonstrates compassion and leadership, and enhances Canada’s global standing. See the stats that support this.

Online experience  |  8-min read
June 8, 2020
Focus Area—Immigration

The travel and tourism sector has been hit especially hard by the COVID-19 outbreak. This important sector of the Canadian economy generates billions for our economy and employs millions of Canadians.

Online experience  |  3-min read
May 5, 2020
Focus Area—Canadian Economics

This briefing was written to shed light on the impact of COVID-19 on global supply chains. It explores the challenges businesses are facing and the emerging opportunities to be in a more solid position to face the new economic, business, and technological realities once the crisis is over.

Issue briefing  |  15-min read
April 27, 2020
Focus Area—Canadian Economics

Today’s release of travel volumes data provides an early look at one of the sectors that has been hardest-hit by COVID shutdowns. Canada closed the border in mid-March, so we only have half a month of data reflecting the new reality. But even that small period confirms that international travel has, for the moment, almost completely ceased.

Quick take  |  2-min read
April 14, 2020
Focus Area—Canadian Economics

Even before COVID-19, there was a clear divide in performance between physical retailers and e-commerce. Online sales were experiencing double-digit growth while sales at bricks and mortar stores were at a standstill. In the current environment, developing an online presence for physical retailers has moved from a need-to-do to a matter of survival.

Commentary  |  2-min read
April 14, 2020
Focus Area—Canadian Economics

The U.S. economy expanded last year, and solid gains in the fourth quarter suggested that another year of modest growth close to the economy’s long-term potential was in store for 2020 as well. These projections changed dramatically once the COVID-19 pandemic hit the U.S. and world economies with a vengeance.

Issue briefing  |  15-min read
April 9, 2020
Focus Area—Canadian Economics

Although merchandise exports increased in February, the outlook for Canada’s trade sector over the near term is far from positive. The combination of depressed global economic activity led by the U.S., and severe disruptions to global supply chains impacted by the intensification of the COVID-19 pandemic, leaves Canada in a very vulnerable position.

Quick take  |  3-min read
April 2, 2020
Focus Area—Canadian Economics

In the midst of a global collapse in demand for oil, Saudi Arabia and Russia have embarked on a price war that has brought oil prices down to rock bottom levels—putting at risk many companies in Canada’s energy sector.

Quick take  |  2-min read
March 31, 2020
Focus Area—Canadian Economics

The spread of COVID-19 is a humanitarian emergency that is causing a change in global behaviour unlike anything that most of us have ever seen in our lifetime. Countries around the world are closing their borders and imposing quarantine measures on their citizens.

Online experience  |  8-min read
March 23, 2020
Focus Area—Canadian Economics

Over the past few weeks, the number of COVID-19 cases in Canada has grown, following the exponential curve that is the typical pattern of this very contagious virus. So here as elsewhere, drastic measures, imposed and self-imposed, are being adopted by governments, business leaders and households to slow its spread.

Op-ed  |  4-min read
March 19, 2020
Focus Area—Canadian Economics

While the Composite Leading Index rose in January, it’s hard to be optimistic about Canada’s near-term economic prospects. The global spread of coronavirus coupled with the rail blockades will hurt economic growth in both the first quarter and second quarter of 2020.

Online experience  |  8-min read
March 18, 2020
Focus Area—Canadian Economics

The Bank of Canada made a surprise double cut to its overnight rate this morning. In many ways this is a pre-emptive cut to draw a line under the economic fears we have seen over the past two weeks.

Quick take  |  2-min read
March 4, 2020
Focus Area—Canadian Economics

Growth in the Canadian economy slowed to a muted in the fourth quarter. The sluggish performance was the result of a decline in business investment and exports, which were only partially offset by continued strength in consumer spending. Today’s release shows that economic growth has slowed to a crawl.

Quick take  |  2-min read
February 28, 2020
Focus Area—Canadian Economics

The headline story about the economy over the past few months has been the likelihood of a recession in the coming year. Global growth slowed as the trade war between China and the U.S. escalated, and this has driven fears that Canada—a country that is highly dependent on trade—could be on the brink of recession.

Report  |  50-min read
February 27, 2020
Focus Area—Canadian Economics

After a tough start to the year, the Canadian economy bounced back strongly in the second quarter. Although the headline growth number was impressive, the gain was driven entirely by the trade sector as final domestic demand was essentially zero—the fourth disappointing quarter over the past five quarters.

Report  |  50-min read
February 19, 2020
Focus Area—Canadian Economics

Canada’s global pulp market share is eroding—Global pulp markets are growing, fuelled by China’s economic growth. From 2008 to 2018, global pulp exports increased by nearly one-third. Even so, Canada has not taken full advantage of the growing opportunities and has lost market share to major competitors, such as Brazil, Finland, and Indonesia.

Briefing  |  15-min read
February 18, 2020
Focus Area—Canadian Economics

Strong growth in passenger traffic and commercial airline production in recent years led to a robust recovery for the aerospace industry. However, as the global economy slows and growth in passenger traffic continues to weaken, the industry may be reaching the end of the latest growth spurt.

Briefing  |  15-min read
February 6, 2020
Focus Area—Canadian Economics

Canada just entered a new decade in 2020, but there are several unsolved challenges that we’ll have to deal with over the coming years. The external landscape is also challenging, especially as the United States and China are, one day, working toward a trade deal, or the next day, ramping up the tariff war—with either outcome likely hurtful for Canada’s own trade prospects.

Op-ed  |  5-min read
January 30, 2020
Focus Area—Canadian Economics

The U.S. economy expanded in 2019, however weaker growth is anticipated in 2020. As investment spending and export growth continue to weigh on economic activity. The economy is growing at a pace close to its potential, while labour markets continue to add new jobs per month.

Report  |  25-min read
January 15, 2020
Focus Area—Canadian Economics