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Supply chain disruptions are turning out to be the bane of consumer confidence. The near future doesn’t look too bright as consumers’ optimism is likely to further erode. Canadians are likely to spend less and save more due to the uncertainty surrounding future prices and supply chain disruptions that have no end in sight. Worse still, this is all brewing in the backdrop of a looming pandemic entering an endemic phase.

Quick take  |  2-min read
Momanyi Mokaya—November 22, 2021
Focus Area—Canadian Economics

Supply chain disruptions are taking their toll on retail sales by limiting the number of goods retailers can sell. This is particularly evident at automotive dealerships, as the global shortage in semi-conductors has left automakers no choice but to cut production in recent months. The availability of many other goods, such as electronics and appliances, has been hit disproportionally hard by the supply crunch as well.

Quick take  |  2-min read
Richard Forbes—November 19, 2021
Focus Area—Canadian Economics

If any good is coming of inflation this year, it’s that the vocabulary of Canadian economists is being refined. We’re now familiar with all the nuances that “permanent,” “transitory,” and “transitory but not short-lived” can imply. Semantics aside, it’s difficult to make the case that inflation is transitory.

Quick take  |  2-min read
Kiefer Van Mulligen—November 17, 2021
Focus Area—Canadian Economics

You can’t go anywhere these days without hearing about supply chains, bottlenecks, and shortages. These disruptions are making life difficult for many Canadian manufacturers and are unlikely to go away any time soon. Shortages of key inputs and intermediate goods (including semiconductors) and shipping challenges are adding to the delays and slowdowns.

Quick take  |  2-min read
Kiefer Van Mulligen—November 15, 2021
Focus Area—Canadian Economics

After employment surpassed the pre-pandemic level in September, you would be forgiven for thinking the jobs recovery was complete. Based on today’s population, this difference amounts to just over 250,000 jobs. There’s still lots of work to do.

Quick take  |  3-min read
Liam Daly—November 5, 2021
Focus Area—Canadian Economics

Today, the government of Ontario released its fall Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review, with an emphasis on its post-pandemic recovery plan. The economic and fiscal outlook is much improved in comparison to Budget 2021, released in March. The province still forecasts a string of deficits through to 2023-24, but cumulatively, they are nearly $50 billion lower than previously expected.

Quick take  |  3-min read
Richard Forbes and Daniel Fields—November 4, 2021
Focus Area—Canadian Economics

Despite the improvement in the goods trade balance, September’s merchandise trade numbers were largely disappointing, as the trade sector continues to grapple with supply disturbances. The spread of the Delta variant inflamed disruptions to supply chains and continued to take a major toll on some sectors, such as the motor vehicles and parts industry.

Quick take  |  2-min read
Doris Chu—November 4, 2021
Focus Area—Canadian Economics

Following the reopening of the economy, the Canadian consumer wants to spend more. But global supply chain disruptions and labour shortages are creating challenges for firms to meet consumers’ demands. This is driving prices upwards, forcing a lot of Canadians to hold back from spending on large-ticket items.

Quick take  |  3-min read
Liam Daly—October 29, 2021
Focus Area—Canadian Economics

As expected, the Bank reduced its monetary stimulus. But that was the easy part. A more arduous journey lies ahead. Supply chain disruptions are here to stay at least until the summer of next year. These disruptions are not only fanning inflation but also subduing growth.

Quick take  |  3-min read
Sasan Fouladirad—October 27, 2021
Focus Area—Canadian Economics

This morning’s release is particularly encouraging for two key reasons. First, retailers are doing well despite facing more tough competition from leisure activities (such as travel and in-person dining) following the loosening of public health restrictions. Second, retail sales grew at a healthy clip despite ongoing supply chain issues, which have hurt the availability of many consumer goods.

Quick take  |  2-min read
Richard Forbes—October 22, 2021
Focus Area—Canadian Economics

September’s inflation print should remind the markets to go beyond the transitory vs persistent debate. Inflation has been above the Bank of Canada’s upper target range of 2 to 3 per cent for half a year. Something is transitory if it doesn’t change behavior. But we are seeing businesses change behavior, for example when it comes to setting higher prices for their goods and services.

Quick take  |  3-min read
Anna Feng —October 20, 2021
Focus Area—Canadian Economics

As new COVID-19 cases dropped, consumer confidence picked up. The improvement in October’s Consumer Confidence Index mainly reflects the uptick in consumers’ confidence in future employment, as more job openings are expected following the economic reopening.

Quick take  |  1-min read
Anna Feng—October 18, 2021
Focus Area—Canadian Economics

A recovering global economy means more demand for Canadian manufacturing products. Sustained growth in primary metal manufacturing (used as an input in construction and many manufacturing subsectors) is indicative of the global recovery underway. Demand for raw and intermediate materials has shot up, driving prices higher.

Quick take  |  2-min read
Kiefer Van Mulligen—October 14, 2021
Focus Area—Canadian Economics

September marks the end of the third quarter, during which the labour market added almost 350,000 jobs. A direct result of the reopening of the economy, these gains represent a significant step forward for the labour market. With employment now past its pre-pandemic level, we expect job growth to moderate over the coming months as the economy continues to absorb spare capacity.

Quick take  |  2-min read
Liam Daly—October 8, 2021
Focus Area—Canadian Economics

August’s merchandise trade numbers were encouraging, but much of this was due to higher energy exports. The monthly numbers highlighted the ongoing pandemic-induced challenges that many non-energy sectors have been enduring, with the most prevalent being fractured production processes owing to supply chain disruptions. With the pandemic far from over, the outlook for Canada’s merchandise exports remains on shaky ground.

Quick take  |  2-min read
Doris Chu—October 5, 2021
Focus Area—Canadian Economics

Canadians enjoyed greater freedom to spend on in-person dining, entertainment, and travel in July. As demand for these services grew, consumers redirected spending away from real estate and goods such as building material, garden supplies and sporting goods.

Quick take  |  2-min read
Liam Daly —October 1, 2021
Focus Area—Canadian Economics

Tourism spending is sensitive to lockdowns. Despite showing some growth, the pandemic’s third wave and stringent restrictions on nonessential domestic travel kept tourism expenditures low during the second quarter. With the border closed and bans on nonessential inbound travel, international visitor expenditures in Canada also remained subdued.

Quick take  |  2-min read
Kiefer Van Mulligen—September 29, 2021
Focus Area—Canadian Economics

We lead the world in the generation of solid waste per capita. Plastic waste pollution is one of the seminal environmental issues of our time. On this front, our performance has been poor. Only a quarter of plastic waste is collected, with just nine per cent being recycled. The “take-make-waste” paradigm of our linear plastics economy is unsustainable. A reset is overdue.

Op-ed  |  4-min read
Babatunde Olateju—September 27, 2021
Focus Area—Sustainability

The steam is fading. After public health restrictions were eased around many parts of the country in June, retailers naturally saw a boost to their sales. However, as restrictions continued to ease in July, many Canadians decided to spend on leisure activities such as travel and dining rather than on retail goods.

Quick take  |  2-min read
Richard Forbes—September 23, 2021
Focus Area—Canadian Economics

Canadians have been enjoying the return of some simple pleasures over the last few months. As the vaccination rate has increased, people have been heading out to patios, booking vacations, and engaging in social activities. This is good news. But every rose has its thorn. Provincial and territorial reopenings have also brought with them a spike in prices.

Op-ed  |  4-min read
Sohaib Shahid—September 21, 2021
Focus Area—Canadian Economics

The decline in September’s Consumer Confidence Index reflects Canadians’ caution in the face of the fourth wave. Concerns over future finances and employment mean that the average Canadian will likely hold back on spending and save more for a rainy day.

Quick Take  |  2-min read
Anna Feng—September 20, 2021
Focus Area—Canadian Economics

The latest inflation data reflect an economy where supply keeps falling short despite robust demand. Several factors, mostly temporary, are pushing up consumer prices. Still, uncertainty surrounding the pandemic means that the persistence and magnitude of these factors are unclear. .

Quick Take  |  2-min read
Anna Feng—September 20, 2021
Focus Area—Canadian Economics

Can policy makers really have an impact on the economy, create jobs and even lift economic growth, or rather, should they just stay out of the kitchen? That’s a question I used to ask myself. After all, I started studying economics in the late 1980s when much of the thinking in academia was that Keynesian economics had gone too far. Governments were far too involved in the economy, taxing too much, spending too much, and many putting in place one boondoggle policy after another.

Commentary  |  3-min read
Pedro Antunes—September 20, 2021
Focus Area—Canadian Economics

Though the job gains in August are a good sign, Canada is still down jobs compared to February 2020. If employment remains subdued, a full economic recovery will take longer than expected. Combined with slower than expected economic growth in the second quarter, that could encourage the Bank of Canada to delay any further tapering to its Quantitative Easing (QE) program next month.

Quick Take  |  2-min read
Richard Forbes—September 13, 2021
Focus Area—Canadian Economics

No surprises. With less than two weeks to the federal election, the BoC kept rates steady. Weak economic growth, lingering challenges to the labour market, and uncertainty surrounding the pandemic mean that the economy still needs substantial monetary policy support.

Quick take  |  2-min read
Sasan Fouladirad—September 8, 2021
Focus Area—Canadian Economics

After two months of negative GDP growth, the economy’s downhill trek ended in June. Accelerated vaccination programs allowed some provinces to relax restrictions. This prompted Canadians to start spending on high-contact services, including indoor dining, travel, and recreation.

Quick take  |  2-min read
Sohaib Shahid—August 31, 2021
Focus Area—Canadian Economics

Sunny days for retail sales are here. An acceleration in vaccination programs in June prompted some (though not all) provinces to ease restrictions. This allowed many Canadians to head out to patios, book vacations and engage in social activities. All of which meant more spending.

Quick take  |  2-min read
Kiefer Van Mulligen—August 20, 2021
Focus Area—Canadian Economics

Transitory or not, inflation is running hot right now. And July’s data confirms that. Whose to blame? Well, a combination of factors including lingering supply chain disruptions, base effects from last year, and greater consumer demand as

Quick take  |  2-min read
Anna Feng—August 18, 2021
Focus Area—Canadian Economics

Reopen and jobs will grow. That’s the mantra the labour market has followed. The labour market recovery is now at its most advanced stage since the pandemic’s onset. However, not all is fine and dandy. While July’s fall in the unemployment rate is of course welcome, the share of the unemployed who have been out of work for 27 weeks or more still account for almost 30 per cent of total unemployment.

Quick take  |  2-min read
Liam Daly—August 6, 2021
Focus Area—Canadian Economics

Inflation slipped in June, partly due to a reweighting of the basket of consumer goods. The growth of gasoline prices is slowing and prices on food and clothing are cooling too. Elevated housing prices, however, continued to be the main upward contributor to last month’s inflation. We expect that inflation will trend around 3 per cent for the rest of 2021, as a result of ongoing supply shortage issues and increasing consumer demand.

Quick take  |  2-min read
Anna Feng—July 28, 2021
Focus Area—Canadian Economics

Today’s announcement from the Bank of Canada reflects its confidence in the strength of the Canadian economy. Holding policy interest rate steady, while reducing weekly net purchases of federal bonds, is an important step in our economic recovery. We anticipate CPI inflation to remain before easing next year, while the Bank is expected to keep interest rates steady until the 2 per cent inflation target is sustainably achieved.

Quick take  |  2-min read
Sasan Fouladirad—July 14, 2021
Focus Area—Canadian Economics

As economic restrictions across much of Canada began to ease, the labour market responded with solid employment gains concentrated in sectors where the restrictions have been most punishing. Improvements in several high-contact service industries drove growth in part-time employment and provided welcome job growth among young and female workers.

Quick take  |  3-min read
Liam Daly—July 9, 2021
Focus Area—Canadian Economics

April saw the first monthly contraction in real GDP since last year’s decline at the outset of the pandemic. Output fell, month-over-month. Statistics Canada expects output to drop in May. We anticipate that many of the hardest-hit sectors will show a bounce back in June, with our latest national forecast calling for growth in real GDP in the second quarter.

Quick take  |  3-min read
Liam Daly and Kiefer Van Mulligen—June 30, 2021
Focus Area—Canadian Economics

Today’s Statistics Canada release showed that retail sales fell in April, posting their first decline since December of last year. With provincial governments implementing more stringent lockdown measures throughout the month, the results are hardly surprising. And given that restrictions mostly remained in place during May, most retailers have endured a difficult spring.

Quick take  |  3-min read
Richard Forbes—June 23, 2021
Focus Area—Canadian Economics

Inflation accelerated again in May, due mainly to “base effects” on gasoline prices which recovered from the plunge last spring. Higher prices for consumer goods, including cars, new homes and food also contributed to the strong inflation figure last month. Going forward, we expect strong consumer spending coupled with supply shortages will keep inflation hot for the rest of 2021.

Quick take  |  2-min read
Anna Feng—June 16, 2021
Focus Area—Canadian Economics

The Bank of Canada held its policy interest rate steady while continuing its weekly net purchases of Government of Canada bonds with a target of $3 billion per week. CPI inflation is around the top of the 1-3 per cent target range but the Bank expects that to ease in the second half of the year.

Quick take  |  2-min read
Sasan Fouladirad—June 9, 2021
Focus Area—Canadian Economics

The employment declines captured in May’s labour force survey results reflect the lingering impact of the third wave of the pandemic in Canada. However, the severity of the losses is reduced compared to the previous month indicating the peak of the wave has passed.

Quick take  |  3-min read
Liam Daly —June 4, 2021
Focus Area—Canadian Economics

Following two months of solid gains, real GDP rose in March, posting a monthly gain of 1.1 per cent. Overall, the economy forged ahead in the first quarter of the year, supported by strong household and government spending, residential construction and growth in exports. The growth in March is a testament to the resilience of the Canadian economy to perform well when pandemic measures are eased.

Quick take  |  4-min read
Kiefer Van Mulligen and Liam Daly —June 2, 2021
Focus Area—Canadian Economics

Inflation spiked in April, due mainly to a rebound in oil prices in the past 12 months as well as the surge in new home prices. We expect that inflation will remain hot in May given the plunge in prices that occurred in the early stage of the pandemic last year. A recovery in global demand for resources and strengthening consumer spending at home, will be the main contributors to inflation going forward.

Quick take  |  3-min read
Anna Feng—May 19, 2021
Focus Area—Canadian Economics

April’s Labour Force Survey shows the impact that tightening COVID-19 measures are having on employment in Canada. The third wave of the pandemic dealt a heavy blow to jobs in Ontario, with schools and stores forced to close. However, with the rollout of vaccines underway, we expect employment to bounce back as we have seen in the past once restrictions are eased.

Quick take  |  3-min read
Liam Daly—May 7, 2021
Focus Area—Canadian Economics

As national vaccinations started to pick-up in February, real GDP grew by 0.4 per cent month-over-month. With Statistics Canada’s preliminary estimate for growth in March, first quarter output will likely be higher than expected in our most recent national forecast. Yet recent surges in new cases of COVID-19 reversed the loosening of restrictions in many provinces in April. We therefore expect that growth may have cooled off in recent weeks.

Quick take  |  3-min read
Kiefer Van Mulligen and Liam Daly—April 30, 2021
Focus Areas—Canadian Economics

Inflation surged due to a strong rebound in consumer prices this March compared to extremely low prices in the year earlier period. Rising oil and housing prices were two of the main contributors to the strength in inflation. Given subdued consumer prices last spring, we expect that inflation will continue to trend above 2.0 per cent in the coming months.

Quick take  |  3-min read
Anna Fang—April 21, 2021
Focus Areas—Canadian Economics

Despite a stronger than expected economic performance in the first quarter of 2021, the Bank of Canada held its policy interest rate steady and announced that its weekly net purchases of Government of Canada bonds will be reduced to a target of $3 billion.

Quick take  |  3-min read
Sasan Fouladirad—April 21, 2021
Focus Areas—Canadian Economics

Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland’s inaugural budget is intended to transform the economy by favouring vaccine rollouts and economic recovery in the near term and focusing on the labour force, green technology, and education over the long-term. While good intentioned, the fiscal roadmap outlined by the Liberal government will come at a cost to Canadians.

Op-ed  |  4-min read
Pedro Antunes—April 20, 2021
Focus Areas—Canadian Economics

While some incremental progress has been made, there is no compelling evidence that voluntary “comply or explain” disclosure requirements have accelerated the entry of women into the boardrooms of companies listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange.

Op-ed  |  4-min read
Susan Black and Rob Davis—April 14, 2021
Focus Area—Inclusion

The global pandemic has hit Canada’s employment landscape hard and forced many Canadians to transition to new opportunities in search of stability. Many jobs in industries such as travel, hospitality and retail have temporarily vanished, causing tens of thousands of people to look for new employment opportunities. Helping Canadians adapt to these very real and accelerating changes in their careers is a central challenge in how we envision a future of shared prosperity in Canada.

Op-ed  |  3-min read
Susan Black and Pedro Barata—April 9, 2021
Focus Area—Education & Skills
Partner—Future Skills Centre

The labour force survey brings news of employment growth across Canada, pushing the unemployment rate to a new low since the onset of the pandemic. Notable employment gains in the retail sector and in Ontario fueled the jobs recovery in March.

Quick take  |  4-min read
Liam Daly—April 9, 2021
Focus Area—Canadian Economics

Unpaid, informal caregivers, who are typically family members, friends and neighbours, play a vital role in helping people with dementia reside safely at home and in their communities. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the financial, physical, emotional, and mental health impacts on these unsung heroes are going largely unnoticed with potentially huge consequences for Canada’s healthcare system.

Op-ed  |  4-min read
Monika Slovinec D’Angelo—April 7, 2021
Focus Area—Health

Over half a million Canadians live with dementia. This number is expected to nearly double by 2033. Dementia refers to a group of symptoms associated with a progressive decline in cognitive function characterized by memory loss, difficulties with thinking, behavior, language, and ability to perform everyday activities. Unpaid, informal caregivers, typically family, friends, and neighbours play a vital role in the lives of people with dementia while helping them reside safely at home and in their communities.

Commentary  |  4-min read
Monika Slovinec D’Angelo, Isabella Moroz, & Lyra Halili—March 31, 2021
Focus Area—Health

Amid stricter lockdowns in Ontario and Quebec, Canada’s real GDP managed to post growth in January. With a preliminary estimate of 0.5 per cent growth for February, this suggests that first quarter growth will be stronger than expected in our most recent national forecast.

Quick take  |  4-min read
Kiefer Van Mulligen and Liam Daly—March 31, 2021
Focus Area—Canadian Economics

Today’s Statistics Canada release showed that retail sales fell in January, following a decline in December. This drop was almost entirely due to lower retail activity in Ontario and Quebec. In both provinces, January brought curfews, stay-at-home orders, and other restrictions on economic activity. Though many of these restrictions remained in place into February,

Quick take  |  2-min read
Kiefer Van Mulligen—March 19, 2021
Focus Area—Canadian Economics

Succeeding in the post-pandemic labour market will require Canadian employers and employees to embrace a paradigm shift when it comes to seeking and filling jobs. Labour markets in this country were rocked in 2020 by the COVID-19 pandemic. Employment in Canada fell by more than 15 per cent in just two months. Certain sectors were hit harder than others, and both workers and employers have struggled to find their footing again. In many cases, workers are finding that there is no job to return to.

Op-Ed  |  3-min read
Michael Burt and Bryan Gormley—March 17, 2021
Focus Area—Education & Skills

February’s inflation was up from its year-ago level, thanks to the rapid growth in gasoline and housing prices.As the economy gradually opens and consumer demand rebounds, consumer prices are likely to exceed their year-ago level in the coming months, leading to stronger inflation for the second quarter of 2021.

Quick take  |  2-min read
Anna Feng—March 17, 2021
Focus Area—Canadian Economics

In the short term, spending by immigrants can help fuel economic recovery, while the availability of immigrant labour will be essential in restoring the restaurant and hospitality sectors. The federal government’s latest efforts to make it easier for immigrants with Canadian work experience to become permanent residents is another sign it’s committed to attracting more immigrants.

Op-ed  |  4-min read
Iain Reeves—March 5, 2021
Focus Area—Immigration

Real GDP posted a 2.3 per cent gain in the fourth quarter of last year, leaving overall economic activity down 5.4 per cent in 2020—by far Canada’s steepest recession in modern times. While the economy recovered over the second half of 2020, economic activity has again slowed in recent months.

Op-ed  |  4-min read
Liam Daly—March 3, 2021
Focus Area—Canadian& Economics

Canadians are innovating and adapting as health emergencies, global warming and automation change our way of life. The COVID pandemic, for example, has accelerated technology adoption as people have sought to remain connected.

Op-Ed  |  3-min read
Harry Sharma—February 22, 2021
Focus Area—Innovation & Technology

Today’s Statistics Canada release showed that retail sales fell in December, posting their largest decline since April of last year. With provincial governments implementing more stringent lockdown measures throughout the month, the results are hardly surprising. And given that restrictions have mostly remained in place since December, it is likely that retailers continued to be hit hard by the pandemic during the first two months of 2021.

Quick take  |  2-min read
Richard Forbes—February 19, 2021
Focus Area—Canadian Economics

January’s inflation inched up 1.0 per cent on a year-over-year basis, thanks to rising gasoline prices and surging housing prices. We expect that as restrictions ease and economic activity rebounds, inflation will gradually recover over the coming quarters.

Quick take  |  2-min read
Anna Feng—February 17, 2021
Focus Area—Canadian Economics

Despite significant disruption by the COVID-19 pandemic, strong demand for skilled tradespeople persists across Canada. Ongoing demand means the talent development pipeline is more important than ever and Canada’s apprenticeship systems will need to adapt to labour market changes. The two top priorities are reducing barriers to digital learning for apprentices and integrating a stronger focus on social and emotional skills development throughout the apprenticeship pathway.

Op-ed  |  3-min read
Andrew Bieler—February 5, 2021
Focus Area—Education & Skills
Client—Future Skills Centre

January’s labour force survey is a mixed bag. It contains some sobering numbers but also signs for cautious optimism. The decline in employment was almost entirely due to the closures in Ontario and Quebec, as other provinces labour markets fared well.

Quick take  |  3-min read
Liam Daly—February 5, 2021
Focus Area—Canadian Economics

Output grew in November, the economy’s seventh consecutive month of growth. While industrial production grew, lockdowns led to declines in services such as arts, entertainment and recreation. Overall, November’s modest pick-up is welcome, yet there is still a long way to go as output remained below the level recorded before the onset of the pandemic in February.

Quick take  |  3-min read
Liam Daly and Kiefer Van Mulligen—January 29, 2021
Focus Area—Canadian Economics

Today’s Statistics Canada release showed that retail sales rose in November and are up compared to their pre-pandemic level. Strong gains in household income—due largely to government stimulus throughout much of 2020—encouraged consumers to spend more ahead of the holiday season.

Quick take  |  3-min read
Richard Forbes—January 22, 2021
Focus Area—Canadian Economics

It’s more important than ever that Indigenous children in elementary and secondary schools study science, technology, engineering, and math (STEM). STEM fields are critical to the future of work in Canada. Studies show there’s high demand for jobs requiring expertise in STEM areas. In fact, they’re growing by 4.6 per cent a year in Canada, compared to the 1.8 per cent annual growth of the job market as a whole.

Op-ed  |  3-min read
Jane Cooper—January 21, 2021
Focus Area—Indigenous & Northern Communities

Inflation decelerated to 0.7 per cent in December. In all, price inflation was only 0.7 per cent in 2020, the smallest increase since 2009. Tightened restrictions across regions in December significantly weighed on consumer demand for transportation, thus pulling down consumer prices.

Quick take  |  2-min read
Anna Feng—January 20, 2021
Focus Area—Canadian Economics

The Bank of Canada held its policy interest rate steady and announced that it will continue with its quantitative easing program. With core inflation well below its target of two per cent, and a slowdown in the economic recovery over the past few months, today’s announcement was expected.

Quick take  |  2-min read
Richard Forbes—January 20, 2021
Focus Area—Canadian Economics

Increasing COVID-19 case counts in the fall have begun to affect the broader economy. Manufacturing sales slowed by 0.6 per cent in November, the second consecutive decline. While only a minor decline, more restrictions through December and January should further restrict economic activity, and thus manufacturing output.

Quick take  |  3-min read
Cory Renner—January 19, 2021
Focus Area—Canadian Economics

COVID-19 continues to challenge Canadians, both personally and professionally. At a personal level, it has disrupted social connections and recreational routines. Those with children are juggling work and parenting. And some are riddled with financial worries. On the professional front, challenges such as working remotely or a fear of catching COVID-19 have amplified worry and distress for many employees.

Commentary  |  3-min read
Dr. Bill Howatt—January 14, 2021
Focus Area—Health

Rising COVID-19 cases through the late fall and into winter led to shutdowns across the country, which weighed on employment growth. In all, employment fell in December, the first decline in employment since April. With restrictions remaining in place or even being tightened into 2021, employment growth is likely to decline further in January and remain weak in the first half of the year.

Quick take  |  3-min read
Liam Daly—January 8, 2021
Focus Area—Canadian Economics

Real GDP growth decelerated to 0.4 per cent in October as the second wave of the pandemic drained energy from the recovery. A notable slowdown in manufacturing contributed to this result, as well as a further decline in the accommodation and food services industry.

Quick take  |  3-min read
Liam Daly—December 23, 2020
Focus Area—Canadian Economics

Today’s Statistics Canada release showed that retail sales rose 0.4 per cent in October and are up 4.5 per cent compared to their pre-pandemic level. Strong gains in household income and rock bottom interest rates have allowed retail sales to post a speedy recovery compared to most other sectors of the Canadian economy.

Quick take  |  3-min read
Richard Forbes—December 18, 2020
Focus Area—Canadian Economics

The Conference Board of Canada is examining colorectal cancer care (CRC) pathways in Ontario and Quebec to understand how to align provincial guidelines, existing pathways for patient care, and a value-based model of healthcare for these patients. Patient care pathways are multidisciplinary stepped-care plans founded on evidence-based clinical guidelines and expert consensus.

Commentary  |  4-min read
Monika Slovinec D’Angelo, Isabella Moroz, & Nicholas Moroz—December 16, 2020
Focus Area—Health

The economic crisis caused by the pandemic will leave long-lasting scars for many Canadian industries and take a heavy toll on the finances of governments at all levels. The COVID-19 pandemic has already taken a massive toll on the Canadian and global economies.

Op-ed  |  4-min read
Pedro Antunes—December 16, 2020
Focus Area—Canadian Economics

Pre-pandemic, the climate crisis was already critical. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change had released its landmark report, the United Nations had declared 2020 a “Nature Super Year,” and a record number of communities across Canada declared climate states of emergencies. COVID-19 may have slowed our pace of life and created a temporary dip in emissions, but our need to address the climate challenge is still very much alive and urgent.

Op-ed  |  4-min read
Roger Francis and Samantha Page—December 10, 2020
Focus Area—Sustainability

COVID-19 has shone a light on mental health in Canada and challenged employers to focus more on supporting employees’ through this challenging time. Organizations large and small often do not fully grasp how to support employees with their mental health needs.

Commentary  |  3-min read
Bill Howatt and Andrew Harkness—December 8, 2020
Focus Area—Health

This month’s labour market data shows that the jobs recovery continues to lose steam. While the overall number of employed Canadians grew in November, growth this month is the weakest since the beginning of the recovery in May.

Quick take  |  3-min read
Liam Daly—December 7, 2020
Focus Area—Canadian Economics

Canada is an energy bank. We need to treat it like one. We require an energy system strategy that would allow Canada to lead (not follow) market opportunities and leverage our capital to transition to a low carbon future. An energy system strategy will allow us to better monitor and achieve our transition.

Op-ed  |  4-min read
Roger Francis—December 7, 2020
Focus Area—Sustainability

The time to support a vision for public transportation is now. The pandemic has highlighted the role of public transit in sustainable urban centres, and two visions of the future are taking shape. In short, a future of automobile-centric sprawl. The second leverages a post-pandemic recovery plan to support our renewed ambitions for low-carbon urban transformation.

Op-ed  |  3-min read
Jesse Steinberg—November 27, 2020
Focus Area—Sustainability

The COVID-19 pandemic has brought about major change for a vast majority of knowledge workers. COVID has accelerated the underlying technological transformations shaping how Canadians work, and emphasized the inequalities across regions in our ability to access digital infrastructure. Increased reliance on digital connections has also increased the risk to cyber attacks.

Op-ed  |  3-min read
Harry Sharma—October 27, 2020
Focus Area—Innovation & Technology

The real GDP grew in September. These modest figures, as well as a preliminary estimate growth for October, show that escalating cases of COVID-19 and stricter public health measures have weighed heavily on Canada’s economic recovery.

Quick take  |  4-min read
Liam Daly and Kiefer Van Mulligen—December 1, 2020
Focus Area—Canadian Economics

Minister Freeland has highlighted the importance of rolling out a vaccine and providing additional support to households and businesses through what will be a tough winter for many Canadians. The additional spending coupled with a lasting negative hit to government revenues will add copiously to the federal debt—boosting the net debt-to-GDP ratio from 35 per cent pre-COVID to around 54 per cent over the medium term.

Quick take  |  3-min read
Pedro Antunes—November 30, 2020
Focus Area—Canadian Economics

Today’s Statistics Canada release showed that retail sales rose in September. Strong gains in household income—due largely to government stimulus during the pandemic—and historically low interest rates have been encouraging sales of big-ticket items.

Quick take  |  2-min read
Richard Forbes—November 20, 2020
Focus Area—Canadian Economics

Housing markets have always mirrored social trends in Canada. The automobile, for example, helped fuel suburban growth in the mid-20th century. A home-ownership tsunami brought on by baby boomers led to a decline in the construction of new rental units in the 1990s. And in the past 20 years, the housing story has been about the growth of our cities, at the cost of small towns and rural communities.

Quick take  |  4-min read
Robin Wiebe—November 19, 2020
Focus Area—Canadian Economics

Inflation inched up in October thanks to increases in food and shelter prices. While the demand for clothing, travel and transportation remained suppressed, consumer prices continued to rise because of a pick-up in housing demand and limited supply of product amid the pandemic.

Quick take  |  2-min read
Anna Feng—November 18, 2020
Focus Area—Canadian Economics

With September numbers in, manufacturing sales rebounded in the third quarter, following the sharp decline in the second quarter of the year. Growth was widespread across industries and regions. Higher prices for lumber, coupled with sharp increases in exports of forestry products and building and packaging materials, supported growth in the wood industry while higher sales of pharmaceuticals and medicine amid the pandemic led to higher sales in chemical manufacturing.

Quick take  |  2-min read
Cory Renner—November 16, 2020
Focus Area—Canadian Economics

In another sign of the resilience of Canada’s recovery, employment rose in October. With shutdowns enacted in some provinces and cases rising in nearly all, this month’s reading should be embraced with some enthusiasm. However, the enthusiasm should be tempered as employment could weaken in November because COVID-19 cases remain high in many provinces.

Quick take  |  2-min read
Cory Renner—November 6, 2020
Focus Area—Canadian Economics

Lung cancer is the most common cancer in Canada and the leading cause of cancer mortality for both sexes. Survival rates are among the lowest for all cancer types. The past decade has seen an evolution of care in oncology treatment, from chemotherapy to targeted therapy and immuno-oncology.

Commentary  |  4-min read
Isabella Moroz and Monika Slovinec D’Angelo—November 5, 2020
Focus Area—Health

The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted product shipments and forced many Canadian businesses to adjust their supply chains. For some, this has involved sourcing more inputs from local suppliers. The current economic hardship has also caused a surge of solidarity from Canadians who are supporting businesses by buying locally. But a strategy focused on buying local is not the solution Canada’s economy needs.

Op-ed  |  3-min read
Pedro Antunes and Julie Adès—November 4, 2020
Focus Area—Canadian Economics

COVID-19 has had an unprecedented impact on immigration levels in 2020. Today, the federal government reaffirmed their commitment to immigration as essential for Canada’s future prosperity. Reaping the full benefits of immigration depends on effectively integrating immigrants and addressing the challenges they face.

Quick take  |  2-min read
Iain Reeves—October 30, 2020
Focus Area—Immigration

Data has been called the oil of the 21st century. And Artificial Intelligence (AI) platforms and tools are commonly described as the new refineries that will convert the data into value-added products, services and platforms.

Op-ed  |  4-min read
Andréa Nadeau and Ramy Nasser—October 29, 2020
Focus Area—Innovation & Technology

This calculator provides employers of all sizes with a user-friendly way to examine their organization’s estimated chronic disease costs related to mental health and cardiovascular illness. Through early intervention and effective treatment, the negative impact of mental illness and cardiovascular disease can be mitigated.

Commentary  |  4-min read
Dr. Bill Howatt—October 29, 2020
Focus Area—Health

In light of a dim outlook, the Bank of Canada unsurprisingly kept its policy interest rate on hold today, while adjusting its quantitative easing program. The central bank reiterated that the economy is not close to recovering, and that core inflation remains below its 2 per cent target.

Quick take  |  2-min read
Eldar Sehic—October 28, 2020
Focus Area—Canadian Economics

Inflation remained muted in September—prices for gasoline and tourism-related services continue to be the main source of downward pressure. Core inflation held steady, which is below the Bank of Canada’s target.

Quick take  |  2-min read
Anna Feng—October 21, 2020
Focus Area—Canadian Economics

With the onset of COVID-19, the already-struggling Canadian manufacturing sector suffered significant declines in March and April. Since then, manufacturing sales have strived toward recovery. However, the latest August decline signals that recovery will have to wait.

Quick take  |  1-min read
Eldar Sehic—October 16, 2020
Focus Area—Canadian Economics

Canada’s energy transition has material issues. The climate change impact of energy materials is prominent among them. Canada’s mining industry can remedy this challenge with the adoption of low-carbon energy sources to power production.

Commentary  |  4-min read
Babatunde Olateju—October 14, 2020
Focus Area—Sustainability

National employment levels continued their recovery at a stronger pace in September. Employment remained lower than pre-pandemic February in all provinces. Canada has now recovered approximately 2.3 million of the 3.0 million jobs lost during the pandemic.

Quick take  |  2-min read
Kiefer Van Mulligen—October 9, 2020
Focus Area—Canadian Economics

Engineers frequently deal with practical problems. But how well are engineering schools preparing them for situations where cultural differences can make or break a project?

Commentary  |  4-min read
Jane Cooper—October 7, 2020
Focus Area—Indigenous & Northern Communities

Life is wrapped in plastics. Their global production has experienced a ten-fold increase in the last 50 years—unmatched by any industrial material. Since the 1950s, Canada’s linear plastics economy has thrived. Albeit with inefficient resource use and adverse environmental impacts on land, water and air. Our nine per cent plastics recycling rate speaks volumes. Change is due.

Commentary  |  4-min read
Babatunde Olateju—October 7, 2020
Focus Area—Sustainability

Following a 6.5 per cent jump in June, real GDP grew by 3.0 per cent in July. This slower pace of recovery is in line with estimates from The Conference Board of Canada’s latest national forecast. While a continued recovery back to pre-pandemic levels of output is promising, real GDP still lies six per cent below its February level.

Quick take  |  3-min read
Kiefer Van Mulligen—September 30, 2020
Focus Area—Canadian Economics

The political moment unfolding now is an opportunity to take transformative action against systemic racism and discrimination. How do we ensure that this moment becomes more than, well, a moment?

Commentary  |  4-min read
Dr. Susan Black and Maria Giammarco—September 24, 2020
Focus Area—Inclusion

In a sparsely attended ceremony, Governor General Julie Payette delivered a speech detailing the government’s direction over their remaining mandate. The Speech highlighted a number of programs, targets and measures that address many important issues and challenges facing Canada and Canadians.

Quick take  |  5-min read
Pedro Antunes—September 24, 2020
Focus Area—Canadian Economics

With every passing day, it’s becoming clearer that “back to normal” is neither realistic nor a desirable goal when the COVID-19 crisis subsides. So what will the world look like? How will the global pandemic reshape work, society, and life six months and six years from now? What kind of potential futures can we imagine or expect?

Commentary  |  1-min read
Matthew McKean and Neil Wilson—September 24, 2020
Focus Area—Education & Skills

For the last 15 years or so, I’ve made my living on the road, and that just won’t be anymore after this, not in any way that used to feel so familiar. Will writers even sign books and hand them back to their new owner in the after? How can I even wonder these things when people are dying and I am safe at my desk waiting for the UPS guy to deliver the coffee beans we ordered from Toronto?

Commentary  |  3-min read
Ivan Coyote—September 24, 2020

The pandemic was shaking the very foundations of our society, a foundation built on inequality and oppression; a foundation that could very well fall apart before our eyes if not for immediate government support and community resilience.

Commentary  |  5-min read
Amira Elghawaby—September 24, 2020

I think of them a lot lately as I struggle to feel like I’m accomplishing anything. My approach to this time was, at first, anything but gentle. I was determined to come out of lockdown having done something extraordinary: maybe I would not only start a novel, I’d actually finish one and then start writing another. I’d take my morning run routine up a notch, maybe run twice a day. Why not? This was a time to take control and strive toward an unprecedented level of excellence.

Commentary  |  3-min read
Kagiso Lesego Molope—September 24, 2020

Exactly three weeks before the official declaration of the pandemic and all it entailed for social isolation, physical distancing, and the devastating impact of COVID-19 on so many people’s lives, I had the pleasure of being the co-convener of a symposium at Trafalgar School for Girls in Montreal that included the phrase “the future of humanity.”

Commentary  |  4-min read
Claudia Mitchell—September 24, 2020

Today, the Bank of Canada held its policy interest rate steady and announced that it will continue with its quantitative easing program. With core inflation below its target and economic activity still well below pre-pandemic levels, today’s announcement was expected.

Quick take  |  2-min read
Richard Forbes—September 9, 2020
Focus Area—Canadian Economics

Canada’s economic recovery continues, albeit at a slower pace. Employment rose in August, the smallest increase since the recovery began in May. With restrictions largely lifted across the country, slower employment growth will be the norm through the recovery.

Quick take  |  2-min read
Cory Renner—September 4, 2020
Focus Area—Canadian Economics

Economic activity plummeted by a record 11.5 per cent in the second quarter of 2020. Now that we’ve confirmed how deep the recession has been, the big question remaining is how long the recovery will take.

Quick take  |  3-min read
Pedro Antunes—August 28, 2020
Focus Area—Canadian Economics

Year-over-year growth in the Consumer Price Index slowed to 0.1 per cent in July, mainly because of suppressed air transportation and travel accommodation prices as well as weak oil demand..

Quick take  |  2-min read
Anna Feng—August 19, 2020
Focus Area—Canadian Economics

With all the workplace disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, executives, managers, and human resources professionals will face challenges in determining salary increases and bonuses.

Commentary  |  3-min read
CBoC—August 7, 2020
Focus Area—Human Resources

Hydrogen is the fuel for a zero-emissions world. We’ve heard that before and it hasn’t happened. For a breakthrough, innovative and sustainable forms of hydrogen supply, in targeted end-uses, must lead the way.

Commentary  |  3-min read
Babatunde Olateju—August 6, 2020
Focus Area—Sustainability

Canada’s economy continues to recover, as indicated by the 418,500 jobs created in July. However, the increase is less than June, suggesting the initial bounce-back is now behind us.

Quick take  |  4-min read
Cory Renner—August 7, 2020
Focus Area—Canadian Economics

Historically, the GHG emission impacts of rising internet use have been offset by rising efficiency and use of renewable energy.

Commentary  |  3-min read
Sustainability Knowledge Centre—July 22, 2020
Focus Area—Sustainability

Businesses operating under costly COVID-19 restrictions could push up consumer prices near-term, despite the weak state of the economy.

Quick take  |  2-min read
Anna Feng—July 22, 2020
Focus Area—Canadian Economics

So far, Canada has struck the right balance of private and public investments in digital infrastructure, putting us in an enviable position.

Commentary  |  3-min read
Harry Sharma—July 22, 2020
Focus Area—Innovation & Technology

Quick take  3-min read

While Statistics Canada’s early estimate suggests that retail sales could be fully recovered in June, translating retail sales to the broader economic recovery may be optimistic. Income supplement programs helped maintain spending power over and above what other economic indicators suggest.

Cory Renner—July 21, 2020
Focus Area—Canadian Economics

A mental fitness plan can reduce your risk of experiencing a mental health challenge, developing an addictive disorder, or engaging in at-risk activities to cope with stress.

Commentary  |  3-min read
Bill Howatt—July 17, 2020
Focus Area—Health

Today’s rate announcement suggests a steady-as-she-goes approach by the new Bank of Canada Govenor Tiff Macklem. The Bank left its overnight rate unchanged and wil continue with its quantitative easing programs.

Quick take  |  2-min read
Pedro Antunes—July 15, 2020
Focus Area—Canadian Economics

Employment rose by a record 952,900 in June. The rebound was concentrated in services, part-time and low-wage jobs—a partial recovery in the same segments that were hardest hit by the pandemic.

Quick take  |  4-min read
Cory Renner—July 14, 202
Focus Area—Canadian Economics

The CEWS is key to helping business deal with the high costs of running a business while COVID-19 is still a threat. The program has received little uptake so far because businesses are just starting to reopen and because companies have been struggling to interpret whether they qualify.

Op-ed  |  4-min read
Pedro Antunes—July 10, 2020
Focus Area—Canadian Economics