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Metropolitan Resale Snapshot: August 21, 2020

Crisis? What crisis?

  • Canadian housing markets generally surged in July, shrugging off COVID-19 concerns and the recent tightening of mortgage qualification rules by Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation. Markets are responding to ultra-low interest rates and recovering employment. Nonetheless, risks lurk, including the end of mortgage forbearance by chartered banks, high consumer debt, and a potential second COVID wave.
  • Sales rose in 28 of our 30 markets in July and were up at least 5 per cent month-over-month in 26 of these. Such large gains pushed transactions above their year-earlier levels in 29 markets. Listings were up in 15 of our 30 markets, but this supply is not matching demand. Sales rose faster than listings in 25 of our 30 markets. Such tightening market conditions have sharply boosted price growth in many areas.
  • Vancouver, Toronto, and Montréal all saw big sales increases in July. Calgary’s gain was slightly more muted. This boosted transactions above their year-earlier levels in all four cities. Volumes in these areas are approaching multi-year highs.
  • Sales rose faster than listings in each of Vancouver, Toronto, Montréal, and Calgary in July, although Calgary’s margin was small. This lifted the sales-to-listings ratio all four areas. 
  • Prices rose in all four of these cities last month. Gains in Toronto and Montréal were close to 6 per cent, Calgary’s gain was nearly 5 per cent, while Vancouver’s was less than 2 per cent. July’s values were well above year-earlier levels in all these cities. 

Recent market performance




Long Term header


Short Term header
  • None

 

   
  • Newfoundland
  • Calgary
  • Edmonton
  • Halifax
  • Hamilton
  • Kitchener
  • Guelph
  • London
  • Ottawa
  • Oshawa
  • Regina
  • St. John
  • Saskatoon
  • St. Catharines
  • Sudbury
  • Thunder Bay
  • Toronto
  • Vancouver
  • Victoria
  • Windsor
  • Winnipeg
  • Fraser Valley
  • Kingston
  • Montréal
  • Québec City
  • Gatineau
  • Sherbrooke
  • Trois-Rivierès
  • Saguenay
  • Moncton

   
 
 
  • None
 


  • None
 
*average month-to-month change during latest three months.

Forecast of near-term price growth (year-over-year)

+7% Victoria, Fraser Valley,  Gatineau, Montréal, Sherbrooke, Trois-Rivières
5–6.9% Vancouver, Thunder Bay, Sudbury, Toronto, Oshawa, Hamilton, St. Catharines, Kitchener, Guelph, London, Windsor, Kingston, Halifax, Ottawa, Québec City, Saguenay, Saint John, Moncton
3–4.9% Saskatoon, Winnipeg
0–2.9% Calgary, Edmonton, Regina, Newfoundland
Falling None

Resale indicators for August 2020

Sales-to-new-listings ratio
Market1 Market
classification
Sales (#)2 Listings (#) Level Balanced market
range3
Price ($)
Victoria   9,612 13,752     819,566
m/m % Balanced 37.2 16.3 0.692 0.482–0.762 6.4
y/y %   36.0 18.8     25.1
    34,464 60,240     1,057,273
Vancouver Balanced 43.9 7.1 0.543 0.437–0.721 1.5
    24.9 20.9     7.4
    20,868 31,284     817,987
Fraser Valley4 Balanced 36.6 6.8 0.653 0.446–0.715 7.0
    44.7 19.9     15.0
    24,588 45,984     470,046
Calgary Balanced 15.7 8.6 0.540 0.466–0.728 4.9
    14.0 16.3     7.5
    21,768 39,888     371,288
Edmonton Balanced 9.7 1.2 0.533 0.447–0.729 4.4
    13.7 9.9     2.2
    4,584 6,924     299,892
Regina Balanced 8.2 4.0 0.645 0.490–0.756 –1.6
    59.2 0.7     1.6
    6,972 12,348     333,321
Saskatoon Balanced 5.6 11.0 0.555 0.425–0.680 4.0
    52.5 7.7     5.7
    15,168 21,036     323,512
Winnipeg Balanced 12.1 –0.2 0.719 0.450–0.789 5.1
    24.0 –8.0     6.1
    2,292 2,256     256,112
Thunder Bay Sellers’ 0.5 –16.4 1.021 0.495–0.742 3.3
    0.0 –33.6     11.7
    3,144 3,084     302,452
Sudbury Sellers’ 7.8 –3.7 0.934 0.344–0.645 1.9
    18.0 –12.9     13.1
    117,048 180,324     958,713
Toronto Balanced 49.5 23.0 0.658 0.468–0.690 5.5
    23.7 13.3     16.3
    15,552 17,064     710,211
Oshawa Sellers’ 41.9 9.9 0.938 0.480–0.747 6.5
    45.1 –6.3     17.4
    16,428 18,744     689,414
Hamilton Sellers’ 31.8 9.2 0.874 0.436–0.794 4.6
    21.7 –1.8     15.7
    3,900 3,972     583,904
St. Catharines Sellers’ 51.2 –5.2 1.006 0.396–0.709 –2.1
    34.3 –19.7     19.6
    10,248 11,256     631,415
Kitchener Sellers’ 25.0 –0.8 0.936 0.485–0.763 7.0
    23.9 –8.3     21.8
    3,696 3,816     641,743
Guelph Sellers’ 17.6 –4.2 0.955 0.507–0.836 –2.6
    16.7 –18.9     15.7
    11,868 13,116     485,354
London Sellers’ 16.9 –1.1 0.906 0.413–0.681 3.6
    18.2 –8.4     19.5
    7,176 8,736     400,732
Windsor Sellers’ 6.0 –3.1 0.825 0.448–0.684 5.3
    11.8 –11.3     22.7
    5,292 5,748     447,080
Kingston Sellers’ 21.8 –3.4 0.898 0.311–0.606 –0.1
    42.7 –6.4     13.8
    21,732 24,780     529,676
Ottawa Sellers’ 28.7 17.3 0.881 0.408–0.701 3.4
    12.9 –4.9     19.5
    7,524 7,611     317,635
Gatineau Sellers’ 13.6 –2.6 0.954 0.439–0.712 3.6
    38.0 3.0     24.4
    75,283 87,645     459,343
Montréal Sellers’ 30.2 –1.3 0.850 0.555–0.767 5.8
    44.1 36.4     16.3
    12,782 12,604     297,082
Québec City Sellers’ 5.5 –9.6 0.994 0.499–0.744 7.0
    42.6 –9.7     7.8
    3,493 2,891     314,639
Sherbrooke Sellers’ 45.9 –7.9 1.112 0.443–0.716 9.4
    62.7 15.2     30.5
    1,522 1,453     178,668
Trois-Rivières Sellers’ –24.6 –24.1 1.061 0.480–0.765 –4.6
    3.9 –21.5     0.0
    1,921 2,054     196,304
Saguenay Sellers’ –3.1 –18.9 0.961 0.424–0.705 –3.8
    52.1 –8.9     8.6
    2,412 3,204     202,297
Saint John Sellers’1.0 5.1 0.776 0.367–0.606 0.8
    8.6 –13.6     9.1
    4,344 5,256     212,592
Moncton Sellers’ 12.1 24.4 0.813 0.397–0.643 1.2
    13.5 15.6     12.7
    7,140 9,048     359,420
Halifax Sellers’ 6.3 13.0 0.819 0.429–0.789 0.6
    4.8 –0.9     17.2
    4,908 10,620     242,075
Newfoundland
Balanced 52.0 1.6 0.462 0.344–0.577 7.5
(province)   20.6 –7.3     –0.9

1 For real estate board area (except Newfoundland, which is province-wide).
2 Italics indicate percentage change. The second row shows the percentage change from the previous month, the third row from the year earlier.
3 Within one standard deviation of long-term average sales-to-new-listings ratio.
4 Includes Abbotsford.
Note: All data are seasonally adjusted.
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Canadian Real Estate Association; Quebec Federation of Real Estate Boards.


About the Metro resale snapshot

The monthly Metro resale snapshot provides an overview of the existing home market for 30 areas and expectations for existing home price growth over the short term.



Disclaimer: Forecasts and research often involve numerous assumptions and data sources and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. 

The spread of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has created uncertainty in all global markets. We’re doing our best to provide timely updates, but information can fall out of date quickly. Visit conferenceboard.ca for our latest insights. The Conference Board of Canada reserves the right to adjust content as necessary.

        
The spread of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has created uncertainty in all global markets. We’re doing our best to provide timely updates, but information can fall out of date quickly. Visit conferenceboard.ca for our latest insights. The Conference Board of Canada reserves the right to adjust content as necessary.

Any errors or omissions in fact or interpretation are the responsibility of The Conference Board of Canada.
    
Robin Wiebe Robin Wiebe
Senior Economist

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