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Metropolitan Resale Snapshot: June 2, 2020

Pandemic wreaks havoc in resale activity in April

  • Social distancing, skeptical lenders, and collapsed consumer confidence have ravaged resale markets. Most market participants have sharply curtailed activity amid a fog of uncertainty. Federal policy moves, including recent sharp interest rate cuts, will eventually improve conditions, but the immediate future is bleak. A healthy employment rebound would help.
  • Sales were down in 29 of our 30 markets in April. Only Newfoundland and Labrador saw volumes rise. Most month-to-month declines were in the 50–75 per cent range. Every market’s April sales trailed its year-earlier level, again with widespread drops of 50–70 per cent. Listings were also down in almost all markets, from both the previous month and the prior year. Sales and listing volatility makes assessing current market states virtually impossible. In many markets, listings fell more than sales, creating a temporary and likely illusionary sellers’ state.
  • Vancouver, Calgary, Toronto, and Montréal all suffered big sales declines in April; these were also well off their year-earlier levels. Volumes hit record lows in Vancouver, Calgary, and Montréal.
  • Similar sales and listings drops in Montréal, Calgary, and Toronto left those cities’ sales-to-listings ratios relatively unchanged from the previous month. Vancouver’s April ratio was also little changed from its March level, despite a larger percentage drop in listings than in sales.
  • More broadly, across our 30 markets, prices fell month-over-month in all but two cities. Prices were down in Vancouver, Calgary, Toronto, and Montréal last month, but only Toronto’s drop was double-digit. Nonetheless, values remained above year-earlier levels in Vancouver, Toronto, and Montréal.

Recent market performance




Long Term header


Short Term header
  • Regina
  • Saskatoon
  • Vancouver
  • Kingston
  • Gatineau
  • Sherbrooke
  • Moncton
   
  • Newfoundland
   
 
 
  • Calgary
  • Edmonton
  • Halifax
  • Hamilton
  • Kitchener
  • Guelph
  • London
  • Ottawa
  • Oshawa
  • Saint John
  • St. Catharines
  • Sudbury
  • Thunder Bay
  • Toronto
  • Victoria
  • Windsor
  • Winnipeg
  • Fraser Valley
  • Montréal
  • Québec City
  • Trois-Rivières
  • Saguenay


 
*average month-to-month change during latest three months.

Forecast of near-term price growth (year-over-year)

+7% Fraser Valley, Kitchener, Guelph, Kingston, Ottawa, Gatineau, Montréal, Sherbrooke
5–6.9% Halifax, Toronto, Oshawa, Hamilton, London, Windsor, Moncton 
3–4.9% Vancouver, St. Catharines
0–2.9% Victoria, Regina, Saskatoon, Winnipeg, Thunder Bay, Sudbury, Québec City, Saint John
Falling Calgary, Edmonton, Trois-Rivières, Saguenay, Newfoundland

Resale indicators for April 2020

Sales-to-new-listings ratio
Market1 Market
classification
Sales (#)2 Listings (#) Level Balanced market
range3
Price ($)
Victoria   2,676 5,376     686,617
m/m % Balanced –54.5 –45.6 0.499 0.482–0.762 –7.3
y/y %   –58.3 –52.1     0.4
    11,424 22,776     1,009,570
Vancouver Balanced –57.9 –53.1 0.510 0.438–0.721 –6.2
    –39.6 –58.1     1.8
    6,348 11,820     757,581
Fraser Valley4 Balanced –54.8 –52.5 0.547 0.446–0.716 –1.1
    –50.0 –58.3     10.0
    7,884 12,432     408,274
Calgary Balanced –53.1 –60.5 0.618 0.466–0.729 –4.4
    –61.5 –67.7     –7.3
    8,592 15,768     350,067
Edmonton Balanced –46.6 –52.8 0.539 0.448–0.730 –0.1
    –53.9 –59.5     –3.5
    1,608 3,012     296,709
Regina Balanced –50.4 –48.1 0.523 0.491–0.757 –5.2
    –54.1 –57.7     1.2
    2,580 5,832     320,230
Saskatoon Balanced –47.4 –38.9 0.437 0.425–0.681 –3.2
    –48.7 –49.3     1.0
    7,392 12,720     302,633
Winnipeg Balanced –42.0 –38.9 0.600 0.449–0.790 –0.2
    –36.4 –41.3     –0.1
    1,116 756     235,198
Thunder Bay Sellers’ –36.7 –72.0 1.501 0.496–0.738 1.2
    –45.0 –77.3     1.3
    1,320 1,620     256,116
Sudbury Sellers’ –45.0 –49.1 0.841 0.345–0.639 –17.7
    –41.2 –55.3     –3.7
    28,164 55,452     789,274
Toronto Balanced –66.2 –62.9 0.529 0.467–0.690 –11.8
    –66.8 –65.5     0.2
    4,560 7,668     593,573
Oshawa Balanced –58.4 –59.1 0.599 0.481–0.746 –7.7
    –52.1 –55.1     1.0
    4,572 7,860     598,308
Hamilton Balanced –59.8 –56.1 0.610 0.436–0.793 –7.7
    –64.0 –60.7     4.6
    972 2,280     454,793
St. Catharines Balanced –56.0 –43.3 0.416 0.397–0.707 –10.9
    –65.7 –52.1     –1.1
    3,180 5,328     550,621
Kitchener Balanced –60.1 –54.6 0.640 0.484–0.760 –2.3
    –59.4 –55.8     9.4
    876 1,884     574,281
Guelph Buyers’ –71.4 –56.6 0.472 0.507–0.835 –5.2
    –70.3 –59.8     8.1
    4,440 6,720     412,135
London Balanced –52.5 –51.6 0.665 0.413–0.677 –6.2
    –55.8 –51.6     0.2
    3,228 4,788     332,086
Windsor Balanced –48.4 –52.8 0.674 0.449–0.683 –5.8
    –52.7 –54.5     0.7
    804 2,580     416,839
Kingston Buyers’ –78.5 –55.8 0.308 0.316–0.607 –1.2
    –79.3 –58.3     4.5
    8,340 10,668     454,231
Ottawa Sellers’ –51.5 –47.2 0.799 0.407–0.697 –9.6
    –55.1 –57.7     5.2
    1,882 1,971     285,302
Gatineau Sellers’ –68.0 –62.6 0.960 0.437–0.704 –2.0
    –62.0 –74.0     10.3
    16,606 17,943     421,436
Montréal Sellers’ –66.8 –65.4 0.947 0.561–0.773 –1.1
    –67.7 –73.8     7.7
    3,638 4,138     270,987
Québec City Sellers’ –60.4 –60.2 0.958 0.500–0.738 –5.4
    –55.2 –74.5     –1.4
    886 650     289,995
Sherbrooke Sellers’ –56.0 –70.8 1.339 0.444–0.708 8.1
    –51.9 –76.5     16.2
    580 451     161,143
Trois-Rivières Sellers’ –58.7 –63.6 1.153 0.480–0.755 –8.2
    –63.2 –79.5     –8.6
    440 274     173,173
Saguenay Sellers’ –63.7 –82.1 1.650 0.424–0.699 –4.5
    –67.5 –88.5     –8.9
    1,464 1,428     169,772
Saint John Sellers’ –39.0 –43.6 0.985 0.366–0.602 –10.2
    –30.3 –60.2     –8.2
    1,524 1,668     204,432
Moncton Sellers’ –57.5 –0.8 0.959 0.396–0.638 –0.8
    –48.4 6.3     6.3
    3,516 3,480     323,210
Halifax Sellers’ –50.3 –53.8 0.958 0.426–0.785 –5.8
    –49.7 –60.0     4.1
    3,504 4,176     237,063
Newfoundland
Sellers’ 13.6 –47.0 0.767 0.343–0.577 –0.3
(province)   –19.1 –63.5     –2.2

1 For real estate board area (except Newfoundland, which is province-wide).
2 Italics indicate percentage change. The second row shows the percentage change from the previous month, the third row from the year earlier.
3 Within one standard deviation of long-term average sales-to-new-listings ratio.
4 Includes Abbotsford.
Note: All data are seasonally adjusted.
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Canadian Real Estate Association; Quebec Federation of Real Estate Boards.


About the Metro resale snapshot

The monthly Metro resale snapshot provides an overview of the existing home market for 30 areas and expectations for existing home price growth over the short term.



Disclaimer: Forecasts and research often involve numerous assumptions and data sources and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. 

The spread of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has created uncertainty in all global markets. We’re doing our best to provide timely updates, but information can fall out of date quickly. Visit conferenceboard.ca for our latest insights. The Conference Board of Canada reserves the right to adjust content as necessary.

        
The spread of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has created uncertainty in all global markets. We’re doing our best to provide timely updates, but information can fall out of date quickly. Visit conferenceboard.ca for our latest insights. The Conference Board of Canada reserves the right to adjust content as necessary.

Any errors or omissions in fact or interpretation are the responsibility of The Conference Board of Canada.
    
Robin Wiebe Robin Wiebe
Senior Economist

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