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Metropolitan housing starts: May 13, 2020

Most expectations remain negative



Jane McIntyre    By Jane McIntyre
   Senior Economist
  • There are six CMAs with positive expectations for both the short and long terms. That is one more than last month.
  • Short- and long-term expectations remain positive in Calgary and Edmonton in spite of low oil prices and the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic.
  • Nearly 60 per cent of the CMAs in this report have negative long-term expectations. The percentage is the same for negative short-term expectations.
  • The CMAs with the biggest year-over-year percentage increases in housing starts in April were Oshawa, Saint John, Regina, Saskatoon, and Toronto.
  • Kitchener–Waterloo had the biggest year-over-year percentage decrease in housing starts last month.

Expectations quadrant


 Long Term header
 
Short Term header
  • Sudbury
  • Thunder Bay
  • Oshawa
  • Regina
  • Calgary
  • Edmonton


 
  • Québec City
  • Sherbrooke
  • Ottawa–Gatineau
  • Windsor
  • Victoria
 

  
  • St. John's
  • Toronto
  • Hamilton
  • Winnipeg
  • Saskatoon
 
  • Halifax
  • Saint John
  • Moncton
  • Montréal
  • Trois-Rivières
  • Saguenay
  • Kingston
  • St. Catharines—Niagara
  • Kitchener–Waterloo
  • London
  • Vancouver
  • Abbotsford–Mission

Note: Positioning in the quadrant indicates short- and long-term expectations for each CMA’s housing market. The best position would be in the Up-Up quadrant, which shows positive prospects for both short- and long-term growth. The worst position would be in the Down-Down quadrant.
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; CMHC, Housing Market Information Portal.


Metropolitan housing starts

 

Expectations

Year ago

6–Mon. MA

3–Mon. MA

Apr 2020

Short term*

Long term**
St. John’s 189 377 250 197 – +
Halifax 2,301 2,777 2,897 1,533 – –
Saint John 97 409 602 255 – –
Moncton 1,156 995 861 1,354 – –
Québec CMA 4,112 n.a.*** n.a.*** n.a.*** + –
Montréal 29,355 n.a.*** n.a.*** n.a.*** – –
Trois-Rivières 676 n.a.*** n.a.*** n.a.*** – –
Saguenay 274 n.a.*** n.a.*** n.a.*** – –
Sherbrooke 1,448 n.a.*** n.a.*** n.a.*** + –
Ottawa–Gatineau 11,261 11,685 12,117 10,498 + –
Kingston 572 485 510 537 – –
Greater Sudbury 183 144 179 226 + +
Thunder Bay 103 677 1,257 9 + +
Oshawa 464 1,857 1,717 1,248 + +
Toronto 38,083 32,370 39,110 60,947 – +
Hamilton 5,594 2,724 3,116 873 – +
St. Catharines–Niagara 3,724 2,325 1,876 1,432 – –
Kitchener–Waterloo 13,958 4,491 3,336 1,063 – –
London 5,303 3,524 3,611 3,542 – –
Windsor 743 1,189 1,474 775 + –
Winnipeg 5,135 4,712 4,804 5,690 – +
Regina 459 681 717 1,061 + +
Saskatoon 672 1,400 1,153 1,209 – +
Calgary 11,351 12,240 9,317 6,775 + +
Edmonton 10,485 11,346 12,845 14,372 + +
Vancouver 34,203 20,926 18,986 15,202 – –
Victoria 5,347 3,470 4,227 5,565 + –
Abbotsford–Mission 994 1,835 1,295 464 – –

Starts seasonally adjusted, annual rate.
*short-term expectations are based on residential permits data
**long-term expectations are based on demographic requirements
*** CMHC did not collect data for Quebec in April, as the province's residential construction industry was shut from March 25 to April 19 due to COVID-19
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; CMHC, Housing Market Information Portal.




Disclaimer: Forecasts and research often involve numerous assumptions and data sources and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. 

Please note that our forecast was completed during Russia’s continuing invasion of Ukraine. Although the situation remains fluid, the core elements of the forecast presented in this briefing stand at publication. For Canada, we expect the largest implications of Russia’s actions will be on commodity and consumer prices. Visit conferenceboard.ca for our latest insights. The Conference Board of Canada reserves the right to adjust content as necessary.

The spread of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has created uncertainty in all global markets. We’re doing our best to provide timely updates, but information can fall out of date quickly. All products related to our COVID-19 coverage will be available for free on our website. To access them, go to conferenceboard.ca. The Conference Board of Canada reserves the right to adjust content as necessary.


Any errors or omissions in fact or interpretation are the responsibility of The Conference Board of Canada.

 

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Next release

September 2020

Disclaimer

The spread of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has created uncertainty in all global markets. We’re doing our best to provide timely updates, but information can fall out of date quickly. All products related to our COVID-19 coverage will be available for free on our website. To access them, go to ConferenceBoard.ca. Any errors or omissions are the responsibility of The Conference Board of Canada.

About the Metropolitan housing starts

The monthly Metropolitan housing starts publication provides the recent trends in housing starts for 28 metropolitan areas and expectations for starts over both the short and long term.

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