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Metropolitan housing starts: June 19, 2020

Expectations dwindling

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  • There are only three census metropolitan areas (CMAs) with both positive short- and long-term expectations, two fewer than last month.
  • The coronavirus pandemic seems to be affecting housing markets, with few positive expectations for the short and long term.
  • The CMAs with the biggest year-over-year percentage decreases in housing starts in May were Abbotsford–Mission, St. John’s, Winnipeg, Greater Sudbury, and Hamilton.
  • Kingston had the biggest year-over-year percentage increase in housing starts last month.

Expectations quadrant


Long Term header
Short Term header
  • Oshawa
  • Regina
  • Edmonton

 
  • Ottawa–Gatineau
  • Windsor
  • Vancouver
  • Victoria
  • St. John’s
  • Kingston
  • Sudbury
  • Thunder Bay
  • Toronto
  • St. Catharines–Niagara
  • Kitchener–Waterloo
  • Winnipeg
  • Saskatoon
  • Calgary
  • Halifax
  • Saint John
  • Moncton
  • Québec City
  • Montréal
  • Saguenay
  • Trois-Rivières
  • Sherbrooke
  • Hamilton
  • London
  • Abbotsford–Mission

Note: Positioning in the quadrant indicates short- and long-term expectations for each CMA’s housing market. The best position would be in the Up-Up quadrant, which shows positive prospects for both short- and long-term growth. The worst position would be in the Down-Down quadrant.
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; CMHC, Housing Market Information Portal.

Metropolitan housing starts

Expectations
Year ago 6–Mon. MA 3–Mon. MA May 2020 Short term* Long term**
St. John’s 412 293 170 128 – +
Halifax 2,361 2,838 1,846 2,732 – –
Saint John 180 405 423 192 – –
Moncton 1,377 891 1,389 2,047 – –
Québec CMA 8,819 n.a.*** n.a.*** 11,454 – –
Montréal 25,451 n.a.*** n.a.*** 32,782 – –
Trois-Rivières 675 n.a.*** n.a.*** 1,677 – –
Saguenay 491 n.a.*** n.a.*** 658 – –
Sherbrooke 1,447 n.a.*** n.a.*** 1,818 – –
Ottawa–Gatineau 13,540 11,208 10,396 11,946 + –
Kingston 442 833 1,175 2,521 – +
Greater Sudbury 130 127 149 49 – +
Thunder Bay 199 881 1,661 345 – +
Oshawa 4,291 1,891 1,558 1,967 + +
Toronto 20,160 33,315 38,532 29,701 – +
Hamilton 2,938 2,198 1,189 1,231 – –
St. Catharines–Niagara 2,319 1,988 1,424 1,227 – +
Kitchener–Waterloo 1,686 3,911 2,654 1,578 – +
London 2,016 3,355 3,143 1,609 – –
Windsor 836 1,126 1,347 840 + –
Winnipeg 7,536 4,519 4,327 2,790 – +
Regina 296 645 618 548 + +
Saskatoon 1,633 1,453 1,228 1,230 – +
Calgary 9,572 11,796 9,298 8,429 – +
Edmonton 6,634 10,786 12,642 7,592 + +
Vancouver 42,642 20,478 20,437 24,965 + –
Victoria 2,318 3,275 3,269 3,053 + –
Abbotsford–Mission 1,768 1,649 549 500 – –

Starts seasonally adjusted, annual rate.
*short-term expectations are based on residential permits data
**long-term expectations are based on demographic requirements
***CMHC did not collect data for Quebec in April, as the province's residential construction industry was shut from March 25 to April 19 due to COVID-19
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; CMHC, Housing Market Information Portal.



About the Metropolitan housing starts

The monthly Metropolitan housing starts publication provides the recent trends in housing starts for 28 metropolitan areas and expectations for starts over both the short and long term.



Disclaimer: Forecasts and research often involve numerous assumptions and data sources and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. 

Please note that our forecast was completed during Russia’s continuing invasion of Ukraine. Although the situation remains fluid, the core elements of the forecast presented in this briefing stand at publication. For Canada, we expect the largest implications of Russia’s actions will be on commodity and consumer prices. Visit conferenceboard.ca for our latest insights. The Conference Board of Canada reserves the right to adjust content as necessary.

The spread of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID‑19) has created uncertainty in all global markets. We’re doing our best to provide timely updates, but information can fall out of date quickly. Visit conferenceboard.ca for our latest insights. The Conference Board of Canada reserves the right to adjust content as necessary.

Any errors or omissions in fact or interpretation are the responsibility of The Conference Board of Canada.



Jane McIntyre    By Jane McIntyre
   Senior Economist

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